The spring forecast for Alberta is in and you can finally ditch your parka
It may finally be time to ditch our parkas — Alberta’s spring forecast is in, and it looks like things are about to heat up.
We spoke with Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Alysa Pederson, who says Alberta is likely in for a warmer-than-usual spring.
She noted that Alberta’s springs have been consistently warming over the years.
“It’s a pretty common thing these days to be forecasting above normal,” Pederson said.
“With things like climate change, we’re warming at two to four times the rate of the rest of the world. When our models forecast seasonal temperatures, they’re comparing them to the last 30 years, and we’re warming quickly.”
Don’t expect any more major cold snaps this spring, at least not like the one Alberta just experienced, which is great news for gardeners.
“Nothing is showing too much colder than, you know, the -10°C sort of morning low that we’ll see over the next couple of days.”
Precipitation-wise, Pederson explained it’s challenging to forecast what it will look like due to the volatility of springtime in Alberta.
Spring weather in Alberta can be highly variable, making long-term precipitation forecasts less reliable, she said.
By May, thunderstorms can dump up to 30 millimetres of rain in an hour, and both rain and snow can still hit throughout the season. With that kind of unpredictability, Pederson said precipitation forecasts rarely reach 40 per cent accuracy.
“Our dry months of the year are typically December, January, and February is the third. Then, we will start to increase that as we get into May. Also, with totals in March being 16.8 millimetres, we can see that happen with one storm. So it’s really tricky.”
However, there are indications northern Alberta could see above-average precipitation while the south may be slightly drier.
With a warm spring on the horizon, any rainfall would be welcome to help prevent another tough wildfire season!