BC government warns loss of 124,000 jobs, $69 billion in economic activity due to Trump tariffs
Just ahead of next week’s United States presidential inauguration of Donald Trump, the Government of British Columbia warns of an economic catastrophe should Trump proceed with his proposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports.
British Columbia could see a cumulative loss of $69 billion in economic activity over the four-year period between 2025 and 2028, with the province’s real gross domestic product (GDP) falling by 0.6% year-over-year in both 2025 and 2026, according to the provincial government’s news release today on the preliminary assessment of the impacts of the tariffs.
- You might also like:
- Eby to push back on Trump’s “unjustified” tariff threats during US visit
- Trump raves about tariffs, suggests Canada become 51st state
- Trump tariff threat prompts Trudeau to meet with premiers
- Canada announces new border security measures as Trump's tariff threats loom
Furthermore, 124,000 jobs would be lost in BC over the coming years through 2028, with the largest declines experienced in the natural-resource sector export industries and associated manufacturing, as well as in the transportation and retail sectors. In contrast, the total number of COVID-19-related job losses by June 2020 — three months into the pandemic — was 235,000.
BC’s unemployment rate could increase to 6.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026 — up from 6.0% in December 2024. Corporate profits could see an annual drop in the range of $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion.
JUST IN… Government of British Columbia estimates Donald Trump's tariffs could result in a cumulative loss of $69 billion in economic activity in BC between 2025 and 2028.
As many as 124,000 job losses, and a reduction of government revenues by up to $2.5 billion. #bcpoli
— Kenneth Chan (@iamkennethchan) January 16, 2025
Trump’s tariff would also create a real dent in the provincial government’s revenues, with the preliminary analysis estimating it could reduce annual revenues by between $1.6 billion and $2.5 billion. In the December 2024 fiscal update, the provincial government was already projecting a $9.4 billion deficit for the 2024/2025 fiscal year — $429 million more than the forecast from the first quarter, mainly due to lower revenues, and before accounting for the potential tariff impacts.
The provincial government will release its 2025 budget in early March.
These economic impact figures from the provincial government assume that the 25% U.S. tariff on all Canadian imports would remain in effect for the entirety of Trump’s second presidential term, with Canada also implementing retaliatory measures.
The provincial government also cited National Bank’s expectation that the impact of such a tariff on Canadian GDP “would exceed that of any previous recession,” with the exception of the pandemic-induced economic shock. This is also based on a previous analysis by the Bank of Canada.
“This preliminary assessment, done by the Ministry of Finance, is one of many possibilities as there is considerable uncertainty about the exact nature, magnitude and timing of United States policies that may be implemented,” states the provincial government.
According to the provincial government, it will collaborate with the Government of Canada and other governments to coordinate a strategy to weather the economic storm, employing a three-pronged approach: “respond, strengthen, and diversify.” This includes participating in nationally coordinated economic retaliation against the United States, strengthening the domestic economy to create more high-paying jobs and generate wealth to support public services, fast-tracking permitting, reducing interprovincial trade barriers, and diversifying trade relationships with the Asia-Pacific region to reduce reliance on the United States.
The BC Chamber of Commerce and the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade previously issued statements of concern in late November 2024, when Trump initially proposed a tariff.
“The Surrey Board of Trade appreciates the Province’s proactive approach to mitigating potential economic shocks from US tariffs,” said Jasroop Gosal, Interim Spokesperson and Policy & Research Manager of the Surrey Board of Trade, in a statement today, in reaction to the provincial government’s preliminary assessment.
“We especially appreciate the Premier leaning on the chamber of commerce/board of trade network, including the Surrey Board of Trade, to communicate data and impacts to the Premier and Finance Minister directly. Businesses must actively support these efforts by diversifying their own markets and engaging in strategic planning to navigate this uncertainty.”