How the U.S. could influence more expensive Vancouver rent
Vancouver rent prices have been steadily falling over the past few years. But according to new analysis from Rentals.ca, the U.S.-Canada trade war might mean that this relief is short-lived.
Vancouver’s rental market will likely face an “outsized impact” from tariffs, as they cause the cost of key construction materials used to build high-rise condos to increase.
“Tariffs will shape the rental market before they show up in the rent numbers, as the trade war is only beginning to work its way through employment and construction costs,” said Shaun Hildebrand, president at Urbanation, in a release.
“On the supply side, rental now carries most of the housing pipeline, which means cost pressure falls on the main product type being built. Projects shelved this year become missing completions at the end of the decade, right when population growth is expected to return.”
The story of Vancouver rent in the 2020s
Vancouver rent escalated rapidly following the pandemic, peaking in Sept. 2023, when the average asking rent in the city was $3,335.
At that time, renter demand outpaced supply due to the fact that Canada has a decades-long undersupply of purpose-built rentals and, at the same time, was experiencing unprecedented population growth.
Since then, the federal government has reversed the demand by limiting population growth, while also increasing incentives to bring in new purpose-built rentals to boost supply, resulting in downward pressure on rent prices.
A tepid economy has further contributed to falling rents, as young Canadians are delaying moving out on their own.
Why will Vancouver be hit the hardest?
In a blog post, Rentals.ca said that tariff-related inflation is expected to have an outsized impact on both Vancouver and Toronto, since these cities mostly build concrete high-rises — buildings that rely on materials hit by tariff-related inflation.
According to Statistics Canada’s Building Construction Price Index, for the second quarter of 2026, metal fabrication went up by 2.1 per cent quarter-over-quarter, and structural steel framing by 1.8 per cent quarter-over-quarter and by 7.2 per cent since the first quarter of 2025.
However, wood, plastics, and composites decreased by 0.3 per cent in the quarter.
“Tariff pass-through into construction costs is already having a measurable impact, but concentrated in steel and metal products, with less impact on materials produced in Canada,” reads the Rentals.ca blog.
This means that places like Alberta and Quebec will feel the impacts less, as low-rise, wood-framed buildings are common.
But in a city like Vancouver, where the new builds are largely concrete high-rises, it means it is highly exposed to this inflation on products like steel, rebar, curtain walls, elevators, and mechanical systems.
And because many of the new builds are purpose-built rental, it will largely be absorbing the cost inflation.
“Rising costs could push already-challenged projects to be shelved or cancelled. Starts deferred in 2026 could become missing completions in 2030-31,” said Rentals.ca.
It added that this could happen just when Canada’s population growth is expected to recover, which could mean there’s “a potential collision between a supply trough and a demand rebound.”
The housing market is already struggling
Already, real-estate and housing experts have been sounding the alarm about falling housing starts in Vancouver. At the beginning of the year, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) warned that if housing starts continue to fall and real-estate demand returns, it could eventually lead home prices to jump by 27 per cent by 2032.
While the BCREA had initially expected prices to tick up in 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threat of tariffs made potential buyers hesitant, and Canada experienced record-high levels of economic uncertainty — exponentially higher than the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
In 2025, many developers thought they’d be able to get their projects financed through presales, but that didn’t happen.
And investors have been hesitant to return due to falling rents and falling real estate prices, since it is harder to get a return on their investment.
“With little to no condo construction to fall back on, Toronto and Vancouver are doubly exposed to potential price shocks on the supply side,” wrote Rentals.ca.