Ken Sim leads Vancouver mayoral race with 30% of decided vote: survey | Daily Hive

Mayor Ken Sim and ABC Vancouver's press conference at Kitislano Outdoor Pool on July 13, 2026. (Submitted)

Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim appears to be leading the race for re-election, as a crowded field of challengers and a large pool of undecided voters could allow the civic election on Oct. 17, 2026 to be won with roughly one-third of the decided vote.

A new early survey by Vancouver-based polling firm Research Co. found that 22 per cent of all likely voters currently support the incumbent mayor under the ABC Vancouver party. Vancouver Liberal candidate and ABC’s former 2022 civic election campaign manager Kareem Allam and Green Party of Vancouver candidate and sitting city councillor Pete Fry are tied for second place at 14 per cent each, followed by TEAM for a Livable Vancouver candidate and former city councillor Colleen Hardwick at 10 per cent.

Vote Vancouver candidate and sitting city councillor Rebecca Bligh received five per cent, OneCity Vancouver’s William Azaroff had four per cent, and the Coalition of Progressive Electors’ (COPE) Stephanie Allen stood at three per cent. Another two per cent selected a different candidate.

More than one-quarter (26 per cent) of respondents remained undecided.

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When those undecided voters are removed from the calculation, Sim leads with 30 per cent of the decided vote. Allam and Fry are tied at 19 per cent, while Hardwick has 14 per cent.

Bligh follows at seven per cent, with Azaroff at five per cent, Allen at four per cent, and other candidates collectively receiving three per cent.

The fragmented results suggest the winning candidate may not need anything close to majority support to become Vancouver’s next mayor.

The undecided share was also higher among renters, reaching 31 per cent, compared with 22 per cent among homeowners.

Sim’s support differed substantially based on housing status. Among all respondents, 28 per cent of homeowners said they would vote for the incumbent mayor, compared with 15 per cent of renters. Allam received 16 per cent among renters and 13 per cent among homeowners, while Fry’s support was relatively even at 14 per cent from renters and 15 per cent from homeowners. This was followed by Hardwick at nine per cent among renters and 11 per cent among homeowners.

Allam was most often identified as the challenger with the strongest chance of defeating Sim. One-in-five (20 per cent) likely voters selected Allam, followed by Fry at 14 per cent, Hardwick at 11 per cent, Bligh at eight per cent, Azaroff at five per cent, and Allen at three per cent.

However, 39 per cent were unable to identify any particular candidate as the best positioned to defeat the incumbent mayor.

Fry received the highest favourability rating among the people tested, with 45 per cent of respondents holding a favourable view of the Green mayoral candidate. Former Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart, if he were to decide to seek re-election, received a 40 per cent favourability rating, just ahead of Sim at 39 per cent.

Hardwick was viewed favourably by 36 per cent, followed by Allam at 33 per cent, Bligh at 31 per cent, Azaroff at 25 per cent, and Allen at 24 per cent.

The Greens also led when respondents were asked about their overall impressions of Vancouver’s municipal parties. Just over half (51 per cent) held a positive view of the Greens, followed by the Vancouver Liberals at 48 per cent, OneCity at 44 per cent, ABC at 42 per cent, and TEAM at 41 per cent.

COPE and Vote Vancouver received positive ratings of 35 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively.

The Greens also narrowly led when likely voters were asked which parties’ City Council candidates they would consider supporting in the election. A combined 42 per cent said they would definitely or probably consider voting for Green candidates in City Council, compared with 40 per cent for ABC.

The City Council candidates for TEAM and the Vancouver Liberals each received 35 per cent, followed by OneCity at 34 per cent, Vote Vancouver at 32 per cent, and COPE at 26 per cent.

It should be emphasized that the Vancouver Liberals and Conservative Electors Association (Vancouver Conservatives) are not affiliated with the federal and provincial parties of the same name.

This Research Co. survey also gauged public awareness and opinions of the City of Vancouver’s highly controversial Villages Plan proposal, which was rejected by City Council in a 10-1 vote on July 28, 2026, with only OneCity city councillor Lucy Maloney voting in support. This planning initiative of introducing low-rise residential density with retail villages for their cores was proposed for 17 low-density residential areas across Vancouver. The planning effort was first initiated by ABC in 2023.

Only 40 per cent of likely voters said they had seen, read, or heard anything about the Villages Plan over the past year.

Based on respondents’ existing knowledge and experiences, 18 per cent held a positive opinion of the Villages Plan, while 47 per cent viewed it negatively. Another 35 per cent were unsure.

After reading the survey’s summary of the Villages Plan’s prescriptions and stipulations for land uses, positive views increased to 26 per cent, but negative opinions climbed even more sharply to 57 per cent. The share who were unsure fell to 17 per cent.

The results for the Research Co. were based on an online survey conducted from July 30 to Aug. 1, 2026, among 401 likely voters in Vancouver. The findings were weighted based on census figures for age, gender, and region. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

A separate survey conducted by Toronto-based Pallas Data in late July 2026 had a smaller sample size and a higher margin of error. But that survey, commissioned by the Conservative Electors Association (Vancouver Conservatives), found that Fry had a slim lead over Sim, with a similar finding that homeowners are far more likely to support the incumbent mayor over renters.

It remains to be seen whether the field of mayoral candidates will narrow as election day approaches. This past spring, COPE, OneCity, and the Greens reached a cooperation agreement aimed at reducing vote-splitting among the left-wing/progressive parties.

Under the deal, each party agreed to run no more than five candidates for the 10 seats on City Council, while COPE and the Greens can each run up to four candidates for both Vancouver School Board and Vancouver Park Board. OneCity can run up to five for School Board and three for Park Board. As well, each party is limited to a maximum of 13 non-mayoral candidates overall.

These three left-wing/progressive parties also ultimately agreed that each could nominate its own mayoral candidate, while making a good faith effort to determine which candidate is best positioned to compete in the civic election.

That has left COPE’s Allen, OneCity’s Azaroff, and the Greens’ Fry campaigning for mayor for now. Although the parties have followed through on limiting their candidate slates for the other elected bodies, it remains to be seen whether the mayoral cooperation will ultimately result in two of the three candidates stepping aside to consolidate support behind one left-wing/progressive contender. Based on this latest survey, the mayoral candidate for the Greens appears to have a potential edge.

The City’s nomination period runs between Sept. 4 and 11, but candidates who have filed their paperwork have until Sept. 18 to formally withdraw.

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