Vancouver to see second-biggest drop in home prices among major cities this year
A real estate company is forecasting that the housing market in Greater Vancouver will continue to soften in 2026, with home prices expected to drop.
A recent report from Royal LePage predicts that the aggregate price of a home will decline by 3.5 per cent in 2026’s fourth quarter, compared to the same quarter in 2025 — the second biggest drop among major Canadian cities.
It predicts that Toronto’s housing market will drop by 4.5 per cent.
After home sales in the Lower Mainland hit a 25-year low in 2025, Randy Ryalls, managing broker for Royal LePage Sterling Realty, said in a release that they are “cautiously optimistic” about an increase in home sales in the spring of this year.
Interest rates have likely “reached their floor,” so some buyers are looking to buy in the coming months.
“While activity is expected to pick up, prices are not, supported by improved demand but hampered slightly by inventory levels that are expected to increase as spring arrives,” said Ryalls.
The housing market dropped in 2025
In the last quarter of 2025, Greater Vancouver’s housing market saw a 4.1 per cent dip in home prices, with Toronto just ahead with a 5.7 per cent decline.
This reflects “cautious buyer sentiment amid ongoing economic uncertainty,” said Ryalls.
“Across the board, many buyers have remained on the sidelines, waiting for more compelling opportunities or greater clarity around the broader economic outlook,” he added.
The median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.2 per cent year over year to $1,682,000, and a condo by 5.1 per cent.
“At long last, home values across Canada are beginning to compress,” said Phil Soper, the president and CEO of Royal LePage, in a release sent to Daily Hive.
“For years, price growth in Toronto and Vancouver far outpaced the rest of the country, but our two most expensive metro markets have experienced gradual price declines for four years now, while other major cities saw steady, modest appreciation and are closing the gap.”
He said that as affordability improves, households might feel less pressure to move based on housing costs, “potentially tempering the interprovincial migration patterns that intensified during the pandemic.”
Soper added that they have lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and more choice. He said that inventory levels are “Goldilocks healthy.”
But with the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver at $1,178,800 in 2025, it was still one of the most expensive metropolitan areas to buy a home across the country.
As Daily Hive reported last December, Vancouver has had a 175 per cent increase in average home prices between 2005 and 2025, due to population growth, limited housing supply, and post-pandemic demand.