NewsReal EstateUrbanized

Metro Vancouver home price increase in 2024 could trail behind Canada's big regions

Kenneth Chan
Kenneth Chan
|
Jan 15 2024, 8:51 pm
Metro Vancouver home price increase in 2024 could trail behind Canada's big regions
StandbildCA/Shutterstock

Home prices in Metro Vancouver could see a modest gain in 2024, trailing behind Canada’s other largest urban markets and the national average.

According to Royal LePage’s new annual forecast, the aggregate home price forecast for the Greater Vancouver area is expected to rise from $1.22 million in the third quarter of 2023 to $1.257 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, representing a 3% year-over-year increase.

This is lower than the forecast of a 5.5% year-over-year increase in the national aggregate home price.

In terms of percentages, the highest increases can be expected in Calgary, where an 8% year-over-year increase will send the price to $716,580 by the end of the year, followed by Greater Toronto with a 6% year-over-year increase to $1.191 million, Greater Montreal with a 5% year-over-year increase to $595,140, Ottawa with a 4.5% year-over-year increase to $716,580, and Edmonton with a 4% year-over-year increase to $447,720.

Calgary’s increase is driven in part by a wave of interprovincial immigration to Alberta, with more Canadians moving to Alberta to seek more affordable housing options, which is driving up housing demand and prices. Recent population estimates by Statistics Canada also suggest there is a new surge of British Columbians moving to Alberta.

This also continues some of last year’s trends, when Calgary saw a 10.7% year-over-year aggregate home price increase to $663,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Calgary was also the only major market to see a quarter-over-quarter increase in 2023’s fourth quarter.

Over the same period between the fourth quarters of 2023 and 2022, the aggregate home price went up by 2.7% to $1.22 million in Greater Vancouver, 4.1% to $566,800 in Greater Montreal, and 5.1% to $1.123 million in Greater Toronto, but the increase was just 0.8% to $430,500 in Edmonton.

Royal LePage expects smaller home price increases across the country over the first half of 2024 — when the Bank of Canada is expected to make its first decreases to the policy interest rate, which will lower borrowing costs. For this reason, more of the 2024 overall home price increases could come from the second half of the year.

“Similar to what we witnessed last spring, when the Bank of Canada paused rates for the first time in a year causing sales activity and prices to increase almost immediately, the first sign of rate cuts – even if only by 25 basis points – could create a flurry of activity in the real estate market, releasing pent-up demand. Those who have been holding off listing their homes will follow close behind,” reads the report.

ADVERTISEMENT