Vancouver’s economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown this year, as the latest forecast from the Conference Board of Canada predicts local gross domestic product to rise by 2.2% this year.
Saskatoon and Regina are forecast to be the fastest growing census metropolitan area (CMA) economies in Canada this year.
- Western Canadian cities — Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver — will occupy the top five rankings in this edition of the Metropolitan Outlook.
- The remaining eight Census Metropolitan Areas in this forecast can expect growth in real GDP of less than two per cent in 2013.
- A decline in manufacturing and weak services sectors will hold back growth in Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton.
- Public sector austerity will hold back the economic outlooks for Ottawa-Gatineau and Victoria.
Thanks to strength in the goods producing sector, Saskatoon’s economy will expand by a significant 5.2 per cent in 2013, before easing to a still-strong 3.5 per cent in 2014. The city’s employment, which rose a robust 4.7 per cent in 2012, is expected to grow by an even stronger 6.1 per cent this year.
Following real gross domestic product (GDP) growth above five per cent in two of the last three years, Regina’s economy will also continue to expand at a brisk pace. Regina’s economy will grow by five per cent this year and 3.9 per cent in 2014.
Meanwhile, energy-related investment in Alberta continues to drive gains in Edmonton’s construction, primary and manufacturing sectors. Edmonton’s economic growth is expected to come in at a solid 4.2 per cent in 2013.
Calgary’s economy will moderate considerably in 2013, mostly as a result of the floods that hit the region this past summer. Even so, healthy gains in the goods sector will make up for an anticipated slowdown in the services sector. After growing by 4.3 per cent in 2012, real GDP in Calgary will increase by 3.3 per cent this year and improve slightly to 3.4 per cent next year.
Real GDP in Vancouver is expected to increase by only 2.2 per cent this year, due to slowdowns in both the manufacturing and construction sectors.
A rebound in primary and utilities output will help Halifax’s economy grow by 1.7 per cent in 2013, an improvement over the one per cent gain recorded in 2012.
A decline in manufacturing and a weak services sector will limit Toronto’s real GDP growth to 1.6 per cent in 2013. In 2014, improved global economic conditions will drive demand for manufactured goods, boosting the economy by 2.7 per cent.
Winnipeg’s economy is expected to expand by a modest 1.4 per cent in 2013, hampered by weak growth in manufacturing and slow employment gains.
Montréal, Québec City, and Hamilton can all expect growth of 1.3 per cent in 2013. Montréal and Hamilton are both facing drops in manufacturing output and slow growth in the services sector, while weakness in the public sector is hampering Québec City’s economy.
Government austerity will also hold back growth in Ottawa-Gatineau and Victoria. Ottawa-Gatineau’s economy is on track to expand by only 0.8 per cent in 2013, as it continues to feel the pinch of federal government belt-tightening. Public administration employment is headed for its biggest decline on record, tumbling by 7.5 per cent this year. The Ottawa CMA’s outlook is expected to improve next year – both real GDP and job growth are forecast to reach 1.6 per cent.
The public sector’s outlook is also the main story in Victoria. Overall real GDP growth is expected to be flat in 2013, coming in at just 0.1 per cent.