4 things to watch in Blue Jays' final 15-game push to the playoffs

Sep 19 2022, 6:00 pm

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the home stretch, with five series left in their regular season schedule and a measly 15 games remaining on the calendar. It’s been a slog for this team as of late, but their regular season grind is mercifully coming to a close.

While last year they were looking up at a playoff spot the last month of the season, this time around the Blue Jays have a six-game cushion on a playoff spot. With a half game lead in the Wild Card standings, if the playoffs started tomorrow, they’d host the opening round series in Toronto against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Blue Jays lead the race for the top Wild Card spot in the American League (MLB.com)

A lot can happen over this last section of the season, and while getting to the playoffs is the goal, a lot of things need to go right over the next two weeks for the Blue Jays to savour some precious October baseball.

1. Tiebreakers still in play

With 15 games left to go for the Blue Jays, there is still jockeying for position in the American League Wild Card race. And since Toronto has four games remaining against the Rays and three against the Orioles, tiebreaker scenarios are still very much in play.

The Blue Jays trail the Rays 7-8 in the season series, which means they’d need to either sweep the Rays or take three of four at Tropicana Field to secure the tiebreaker.

At 8-8, the Blue Jays and Orioles are tied in their season series, meaning Toronto needs to take two of three from the Orioles in their final series of the regular season to hold the tiebreaker over the O’s.

2. How will the pitching matchups play out?

Technically, the Blue Jays only have four starting pitchers in their starting rotation, which means the team could deploy their “bullpen game” three more times before the end of the season.

The way their starting rotation shakes out, it looks like all their starting pitchers will get three more starts down the stretch. However, navigating those bullpen days will be a challenge, because those matchups will come against the Rays, Yankees, and Orioles.

With the benefit of the off-day on Monday, the Blue Jays could rejig their rotation to have the bullpen game come during the third game of the Rays series at Tropicana Field, which would prevent the bullpen game from happening against the Yankees the following week.

There’s also a chance (albeit a slight one) that Mitch White is recalled from triple-A and inserted back into the starting rotation for a game or two. He was rocked for eight earned runs in his latest game in the minors for the Buffalo Bisons, so it would be a long shot to see White back with the Blue Jays before the end of the season.

3. AL East Division title still up for grabs

It seems hard to believe, but the Blue Jays are still within striking distance of the AL East title with 15 games left to play. Back on July 10 they were 16.5 games behind the Bronx Bombers, and today they’re only 5.5 games back.

al east division standings

The Blue Jays trail the Yankees by 5.5 games in the AL East (MLB.com)

The fact that the Blue Jays have a three-game series left with the Yankees is a big factor, and sweeping that series alone would close the gap by three games between the Blue Jays and Yankees.

But in order to catch the Yankees, even if New York plays .500 baseball with an 8-8 record in their final 16 games, the Blue Jays would need to go 13-2 in their final 15 games to pull even with them in the standings.

Asking the Blue Jays to play .866 baseball down the stretch would be a Herculean task, but since the All-Star break, they’ve played .611 baseball with a 33-21 record. Meanwhile, the Yankees have played .462 baseball with a 24-28 record over that same span.

If the Yankees continue to falter and go 6-10 in their final 16 games, the Blue Jays would need to go 11-4 in their final 15 to hit the 94-win mark and tie for the division title. Sweeping that three-game series in Toronto would also be crucial to hold the tiebreaker over New York in this scenario.

4. Who becomes the late season hero?

At various junctures this season, several Blue Jays hitters have put this team on their back. Earlier in the year it was Alejandro Kirk. At a few points it was George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the latest breakout star has been Bo Bichette.

But with just a handful of games left to play, which of these characters will come alive when their team needs them the most? So far in September, the only Blue Jays hitters with a wRC+ north of 100 this month are Bichette, Kirk, and Matt Chapman.

As hot as Bichette’s been at the plate, the Blue Jays need at least one of their top of the order threats to contribute in a big way down the stretch. This is a tremendous opportunity for players like Springer, Guerrero or Teoscar Hernandez to escape from their funks at the plate.

Ian HunterIan Hunter

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