With just one more game to play for the Canucks before we can begin to forget this nightmare season, the jockeying for bottom is becoming clearer.
The Canucks lost in embarrassing fashion, 7-3, to the Calgary Flames last night. That’s a bad sign for the 20 players that suited up in blue and green, but a good sign for the Team Tank Movement.
Out of tank scoreboard
- Winnipeg Jets 5-4 win over the San Jose Sharks.
Reverse standings
With the Jets and Flames winning last night, they move to 76 and 75 points respectively, meaning the Canucks can’t catch them. The Canucks can’t sink low enough for the first two picks either, meaning that their fate lies in the hands of John Tortorella and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Vancouver will finish either 3rd or 4th last.
The Canucks’ chance at the first pick is currently at 9.5%. That could rise to 11.5% if the Blue Jackets can pass them.
Image: NHL Lottery Simulator
Unlike previous seasons, more than just the first pick is up for grabs. The top-3 picks will be determined by a lottery.
Stats guru, Earl, has run the numbers:
If #Canucks finish 3rd last, here are the probabilities for draft positions:
1st 11.5%
2nd 11.4%
3rd 11.3%
4th 14.2%
5th 37.8%
6th 13.8%— Sir Earl (@Sir_Earl) April 8, 2016
If #Canucks finish 4th last, here are the probs for draft positions:
1st 9.5%
2nd 9.7%
3rd 9.8%
4th 3.1%
5th 27.3%
6th 33.2%
7th 7.4%— Sir Earl (@Sir_Earl) April 8, 2016
Complete odds of draft position by finishing position: pic.twitter.com/fR40108xrt
— Sir Earl (@Sir_Earl) April 8, 2016
Tonight’s game of importance for the Canucks
- Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres
The Blue Jackets have two games remaining and trail the Canucks by one point. They are currently tied in the first tiebreaker (regulation/OT wins). Should the Canucks and Blue Jackets end up tied in points and tied in regulation/OT wins, the Canucks would finish higher in the standings based on head-to-head record.
Vancouver will need Torts’ team to win one more game than the Canucks in order to secure 3rd-last.
Canucks remaining game
- Tomorrow: Edmonton Oilers @ Vancouver Canucks
Random run of the NHL Lottery Simulator
Image: NHL Lottery Simulator
No. Nonononono…
