A soggy start? What Metro Vancouver’s early September weather could look like

With summer winding down and back-to-school season around the corner, many of us may be wondering what Metro Vancouver’s September weather will bring.

While the full fall forecast isn’t out just yet, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) meteorologist Matt Loney said early signs point to a slightly wetter-than-normal start to September.

“The summer forecast had kind of warmer and drier weather for much of the province,” he told Daily Hive.

“It looks like the remainder of summer could be more like normal temperatures and maybe above normal precipitation.”

In other words, those blue-sky patio days may give way to more overcast, drizzly ones as September rolls in.

“It appears that it could switch into more of a weather pattern, and that pulls into September,” Loney said.

“The first week [of] September is looking like a signal for potentially more precipitation than normal… certainly for the coast.”

While Loney says mountain peaks could see snow at any time of year, snowfall at lower elevations in early fall is “highly unusual.”

“You can get snow at the mountain peaks, for sure… but in the lowlands, no,” he assured.

So what about El Niño or La Niña?

For those of us who always get confused, El Niño and La Niña are opposite climate patterns that start with changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific.

El Niño usually means warmer, drier winters in parts of Canada, while La Niña tends to bring cooler, wetter conditions.

Right now, though, we’re in what’s called a “neutral phase,” meaning neither pattern is active, and that makes long-range forecasting a bit trickier.

“The forecast indicates a high probability of neutral conditions through September,” explained Loney.

“The probabilities for neutral are higher than those for either La Niña or El Niño.”

That means there’s no strong signal pushing our fall weather in one direction or another and it’s a bit of a “wait and see” situation.

A lightning-charged end to summer

While summer started out fairly calm, B.C. saw a surprising jolt last week, quite literally.

“We had this mini heat wave… and then Wednesday and Thursday, we had significant thunderstorm outbreaks over the province,” Loney said.

“There were in excess of 67,000 lightning strikes over British Columbia in [those] two days.”

That’s a massive number, especially considering lightning activity had been low all summer.

“To have these last few days with that many strikes… that’s quite noteworthy,” he said.

The lightning also triggered a sharp rise in wildfires.

“We’ve doubled the number of new fires in the past 48 hours,” Loney said, referencing updates from Wildfire BC.

What about those government weather maps?

You may have seen government forecast maps showing a warmer-than-normal fall for B.C. (including Metro Vancouver) with large patches of red and orange stretching across the country.

But Loney says those charts aren’t the final word.

“Those aren’t our official forecast,” he told Daily Hive.”They’re run pretty much every day, but… they’re unofficial, as they say on the site.”

Environment Canada’s formal seasonal outlook is calculated separately and will be released at the end of August.

So while the map suggests a higher chance of above-average temperatures across much of Canada, it doesn’t necessarily mean that’s what we’ll get, especially with early signs pointing to a wetter start to September on the coast.

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