6 Canucks who could struggle to repeat their 2021-22 success

When you miss the playoffs in consecutive seasons, there’s probably room for improvement.

However, it’s unlikely that every single Vancouver Canuck will be better than they were last season.

While there are a number of Canucks who might be primed for a breakout season, here are six candidates who will be hard-pressed to repeat their success from 2021-22.

1. J.T. Miller

There’s a good chance that J.T. Miller still leads the Canucks in points next season, but hitting the 99-point mark again will be a tall task.

Miller’s career-high before last season was 72 points. He did accomplish that in 69 games, putting him at an 85-point pace. Still, that significant uptick in production will probably be hard to sustain.

The 29-year-old was tied for fourth among all NHLers last season with 16 secondary assists at even-strength. He also tallied 30 assists on the power play last season, nearly double his previous career-high of 16.

Expect both of those totals to drop a bit in 2022-23.

2. Ilya Mikheyev

Prior to last season, Ilya Mikheyev had scored 15 goals in 93 NHL games, with a shooting percentage of 7.3%.

Last season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, he nearly doubled his shooting percentage, scoring 21 goals in 53 games for a shooting percentage of 14.3%.

The interesting thing about Mikheyev is that you could make an argument either way for his regression candidacy.

At even-strength, Mikheyev might have underperformed last season. His shooting percentage of 9.6% wasn’t absurd. He also had an individual points percentage of 59.3%. The average for an NHL forward is around 70%.

Where Mikheyev really boosted his shooting percentage was on the power play and penalty kill, where he scored eight goals on 30 shots (26.6%). He’ll be unlikely to have that much special teams puck luck in 2022-23. That also means he’s unlikely to score at a 32-goal pace, which was the case for him last season.

3. Tanner Pearson

Tanner Pearson’s inclusion on this list is more qualitative than quantitative.

The veteran winger could like be a victim of the numbers game heading into the 2022-23 campaign. Although he had a respectable 14 goals and 34 points in 68 games last season, the winger depth in Vancouver has changed drastically.

Since the beginning of last season, Pearson has been surpassed on the depth chart by Vasily Podkolzin. New additions Andrei Kuzmenko and Ilya Mikheyev should also get more offensive opportunities than Pearson.

The Kitchener, Ontario native also logged 109 minutes on the power play last season. It’s unlikely he’ll repeat that with newfound winger depth on this team.

4. Tyler Myers

Now, Tyler Myers’ inclusion on this list is based on his defensive performance, not his offensive one.

Last season, Myers was tasked with playing on the Canucks’ shutdown pairing. He excelled in that role earlier in the season, but his effectiveness wavered as 2021-22 wore on.

He finished with a goals-for percentage of 53.4%. That was his highest mark over a full season since 2011-12, when his goals-for percentage with the Buffalo Sabres was 55.4%.

However, Myers’ expected goals-for percentage last season was 49.3%, suggesting that he was a bit lucky not to be on the ice for more goals against.

Based on the fact that he’s going to be another year older while shouldering the same responsibility, we should expect some negative regression to the mean defensively.

5. Luke Schenn

There’s no doubt that Luke Schenn was the unsung hero of the Canucks last season. He began the season as a seventh defenceman and finished the year in a top-four role playing alongside Quinn Hughes.

Expecting him to have the same effectiveness though? That’s asking a bit much.

Schenn is in a similar spot to Myers. His actual goals-for percentage from last season (57.5%) far exceeds his expected goals-for percentage (49.2%).

He also registered 0.42 primary assists per-60, which was a career-high.

Schenn is a warrior, but he didn’t suddenly transform into a playmaking, shutdown ace on defence at the age of 32.

6. Spencer Martin

This one is a bit of an easy inclusion, unless you believe Spencer Martin is suddenly a Hart Trophy candidate.

The 26-year-old played NHL games for the first time in five years last season, and he was spectacular in his return.

After going 19-4-2 with a .914 save percentage in Abbotsford, Martin was arguably even more impressive in Vancouver. He went 3-0-3 in six starts, posting a sparkling 1.74 GAA and a .950 save percentage.

Unless he’s about to rewrite history, Martin is bound to regress.

Thankfully, the Canucks don’t need him to set records. If he could even replicate his .914 save percentage from the AHL last season for a full season with the Canucks, he’d be providing immense value from his $762,500 salary cap hit.

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