Old vs. new for Blue Jays in do-or-die Game 2 between Ray, Gausman

It’s a new day for the Toronto Blue Jays, but one that finds them down 0-1 to the Seattle Mariners in the American League Wild Card series.

After the M’s jumped on Alek Manoah early, the Blue Jays had no answer for Luis Castillio in Game 1. This now turns into an elimination game, and Toronto turns to their prized offseason acquisition, Kevin Gausman.

The Blue Jays won’t say as much, but the team signed Gausman as their replacement for former AL Cy Young winner, Robbie Ray. The very day the Blue Jays signed Gausman to a five-year $110 contract, the Mariners inked Ray to a five year $115 deal.

The term and annual average value were so similar that it makes one wonder whether the Blue Jays had similar offers out to both veteran starting pitchers. But the Blue Jays settled on Gausman as their “Ray replacement”, and haven’t missed a beat without Ray.

In his first season in Toronto, Gausman posted a 3.35 ERA in 31 starts, striking out 205 batters along the way. Gausman ranked fifth in the American League in strikeouts this year, just seven behind their incumbent starter with Ray.

Ray didn’t replicate his Cy Young numbers from last year with the Mariners this year, but he posted a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts, clearing 200+ strikeouts for the second consecutive year.

Despite Gausman’s impressive overall numbers, he may not even finish within the top five for AL Cy Young voting this year. His teammate Alek Manoah has a decent shot at finishing top three, but the BABIP gods weren’t kind to Gausman this season.

His .363 BABIP was the highest batting average balls in play mark since 1918, when Happy Finneran had a .364 BABIP. There hasn’t been a BABIP that high for a pitcher in 104 years.

Earlier in the year, the Blue Jays heavily shifted their defenders when facing right-handed hitters with Gausman on the mound. Close to 30% of at bats against righties were shifted with Gausman this season, setting a new career high.

But at his request, part-way through the season, the Blue Jays played straight-up during Gausman starts at his request. In July, right-handed opponents had a .500 BABIP against Gausman, and that number steadily declined the rest of the season as they shifted right-handers far less.

Despite the bad luck behind him, Gausman had 17 quality starts in 33 games for the Blue Jays during the regular season. Behind Manoah, he’s Toronto’s next-best bet to stave off elimination.

The Blue Jays face off against their former teammate Ray, who plays into favour of this hard-hitting lineup. If there’s one weakness against him, it’s Ray’s tendency to give up the long ball, with his 1.52 HR/9 rate. That was the second-highest home run per nine rate of all starters in baseball this season.

Ray sputtered down the stretch for the Mariners, surrendering eight home runs during his final six starts of the season. His ERA also ballooned to 4.32 the last month of 2022.

As a right-handed dominant lineup, the Blue Jays only have a small sample size against left-handed starting pitchers this season, but as a whole they slashed .227/.295/.369 with a .664 OPS versus lefty starters during the regular season.

Ray’s numbers against righties were slightly higher than the left side of the plate, with right-handers slashing .236/.308/.431 against the Mariners left-hander this season.

If healthy, this means lefty-killer Santiago Espinal likely gets the start at second base for the Blue Jays over Whit Merrifield. Espinal’s OPS was 180 points higher against left-handed pitching during the regular season.

The Blue Jays failed to get anything going against Castillo in Game 1, but Ray’s home run-prone ways may play in favour of Toronto this time around.

So long as there aren’t any BABIP shenanigans with Gausman and can keep the ball in the yard, the Blue Jays have a decent shot at tying this series. But if the lineup doesn’t come to life in Game 2, they’ll be eliminated before they know it.

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