Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley home sales forecast to rebound in 2027 | Daily Hive

The skylines of New Westminster and Burnaby, including Metrotown, in the foreground, along with the Downtown Vancouver skyline and North Shore mountains in the foreground distance. (EB Adventure Photography/Shutterstock)

Home sales in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are expected to climb by roughly nine per cent in 2027, although average prices are forecast to rise much more slowly.

British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) anticipates a modest recovery in 2027 after another year of declining sales, according to its 2026 fourth quarter housing forecast released today.

BCREA expects 2026 to end with a total of just over 67,000 home sales — down 4.5 per cent from 70,186 in 2025. That would also follow a 5.7 per cent year-over-year decline in 2025.

Home sales across B.C. are then projected to increase by 7.2 per cent to 71,840 units in 2027, adding 4,815 transactions compared with this year’s forecast.

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BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said economic difficulties are continuing to make potential buyers reluctant to enter the market.

“Ultimately, we expect a modest recovery in home sales in 2027 as the impacts of new United States tariffs fade and fixed mortgage rates decline,” said Ogmundson.

Meanwhile, a large supply of homes for sale is putting pressure on prices. BCREA notes that the number of active listings is close to its highest level since 2015, with a large inventory of new homes adding to that pressure.

BCREA expects the average province-wide residential sale price to fall by 1.2 per cent to $941,200 in 2026 — from $952,719 in 2025. It attributes much of that decrease to weaker conditions in the Lower Mainland’s more expensive markets.

For 2027, the provincial average is forecast to rise by 2.4 per cent to $964,200, an increase of $23,000 over the projected 2026 average.

The outlook varies between the jurisdictions of Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB), with the latter expected to see a considerably larger average price decline in 2026.

GVR’s jurisdiction spans much of Metro Vancouver, including Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, West Vancouver, North Vancouver City, North Vancouver District, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, South Delta, and Bowen Island, along with Squamish, Whistler, and the Sunshine Coast.

FVREB covers a major portion of Metro Vancouver, entailing Surrey, Langley City, Langley Township, White Rock, and North Delta, as well as the Fraser Valley communities of Abbotsford and Mission.

In GVR, the projected three per cent sales decline by BCREA in 2026 would follow a 10.2 per cent drop in 2025. However, 2027’s anticipated recovery would bring 2,000 more transactions than 2026’s forecast — lifting annual sales by 8.7 per cent to 25,000 units.

Average home prices within GVR’s jurisdiction are expected to recover more gradually. The forecast increase from $1.223 million in 2026 to $1.25 million in 2027 amounts to an uptick of $27,000 or 2.2 per cent. That would put GVR’s average sale price just 0.8 per cent above its 2025 level.

FVREB’s jurisdiction faces a steeper price adjustment before its expected recovery. Its average home sale price is projected to fall by 4.8 per cent to $962,900 in 2026, bringing the annual average below $1 million. An anticipated 1.8 per cent average home price increase in 2027 would add $17,100, bringing the average to $980,000. Even with that gain, it would remain about $31,800 or 3.1 per cent below the 2025 average.

The total number of homes sold within FVREB are forecast to fall by 4.4 per cent to 11,000 in 2026, following a much sharper 16.6 per cent decline in 2025. BCREA expects 12,000 sales in 2027, representing 9.1 per cent year-over-year increase.

Together, GVR and FVREB would account for 3,000 of the additional 4,815 sales forecast across B.C. in 2027 — about 62 per cent of the year-over-year provincial increase.

BCREA’s data on real home sale volumes and average prices is based on its compilation on the monthly statistics reports by real estate boards across the province.

bcrea bc housing forecast november 10 2026

2026 fourth quarter forecast. (BC Real Estate Association)

Greater Vancouver Realtors

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board

Federal measures outlined in last week’s 2026 budget could also influence the housing market’s recovery. Maintaining immigration levels below earlier peaks could continue to restrain growth in housing demand, while providing a pathway to permanent residency for up to 200,000 temporary residents already in Canada by the end of 2027 could give some households greater confidence to buy.

Meanwhile, the federal government’s planned exemption for new homes from the federal foreign homebuyer ban could attract additional buyers and investment, potentially helping developers sell unsold homes and finance construction. These measures could affect sales, prices, and housing supply, with their impact depending on implementation and buyers’ purchasing power.

However, that potential new momentum could be partly offset by rising borrowing costs. On Oct. 28, 2026, in response to inflation concerns due to rising oil prices from the U.S.-led war in Iran, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 per cent to reach 2.5 per cent, representing its first increase since July 2023. The central bank has left the door open to further hikes, with its final scheduled decision of 2026 set for December 9. Another increase could raise variable mortgage costs and reduce buyers’ purchasing power, potentially slowing the housing market’s recovery in 2027.

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