A new study is offering some grim predictions for how B.C. wildlife could be impacted by extreme climate events over the next 60 or so years.
The study, which was led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), was published in Nature Ecology & Evolution.
An SFU researcher was part of an international team that used climate impact modelling to project how much of the planet’s wildlife would experience multiple extreme heat events, wildfires, droughts or river floods over the next six decades.
“We were looking at what percentage of amphibian, bird, mammal and reptile land habitats would experience repeated extreme events such as back-to-back heat waves or a heat wave followed by a wildfire,” said Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, a contributing author to the study.
Kou-Giesbrecht is an assistant professor at the School of Resource and Environmental Management at SFU.
Kou-Giesbrecht said that when extreme events happen over and over in close proximity, “it leaves very little time for species to adapt or recover.”
It boils down to emissions, as the study suggests that even robust conservation strategies can only go so far.
“At low emissions, in line with the Paris Agreement limiting warming to below 2 degrees C, exposure stays within moderate levels at nine per cent. But experts say if we move into high‑emissions scenarios, projections illustrate a massive increase with 36 per cent exposed to extreme events,” the study suggests.
B.C. has a sizable and diverse bird population, having the highest bird biodiversity of any province or territory in Canada. Heat events are known to have a significant impact on bird populations.
“At some point, limiting biodiversity loss depends on climate change mitigation — specifically, reducing fossil fuel emissions,” Kou-Giesbrecht says.
The study indicates that while extreme events can impact biodiversity negatively, they can also benefit certain species, like the ornate chorus frog.
“However, climate change is intensifying extreme events beyond what many species are likely to be able to adapt to, especially within a short timeframe,” the study states.
What poses the biggest threat to B.C. wildlife?
The study says that climate change has led to an increase in extreme climate events, and that the trend is projected to intensify. The study also indicates that heat waves and wildfires pose the biggest threat.
Research found that heat waves had the largest projected impact, and that under high-emissions scenarios, 74 percent of land species’ habitats will be exposed to heat waves in the next 25 years.
Extreme wildfires are the second most prevalent event, potentially impacting 16 per cent of animal land habitats in the next 25 years, further increasing to 25 per cent by 2085 in high-emission scenarios.
While the study points to species-rich regions like the Amazon basin, Africa and Southeast Asia being the hardest hit, Kou-Giesbrecht says that the study underestimates the impact on Canada.
“Canadians are understandably proud of our beautiful lands and the species we share them with,” Kou-Giesbrecht said.
“We can help protect them by staying within Paris Agreement targets to limit warming, alongside robust conservation strategies that account for escalating climate impacts.”
Earlier this year, climate experts explained why B.C. had such an abnormally warm winter.