The surprising advantage at BC Place during the FIFA World Cup
As Vancouver gets ready to host its first FIFA World Cup match tomorrow, the region is set for a scorching weekend with temperatures expected to hit 30°C in some parts.
While temperatures this high are abnormal this time of year, new research from the non-profit Round Our Way shows that the summer heat won’t impact Team Canada or BC Place as much as it could affect other teams and stadiums during the FIFA World Cup.
In fact, tournament favourites, like Spain and Argentina, are likely to face the worst effects from the heat.
This is according to Round Our Way, a U.K. non-profit. In a news release, it explained that it used data from Climate Central (another non-profit), which found that climate change “has increased the likelihood of performance-impairing heat in 97 of the 104 matches … meaning almost every team in the tournament is expected to face a climate-driven heat burden.”
Temperatures above 28°C could impact how well players perform, recover, and even the outcome of the tournament. This is because there’s research that suggests that playing soccer in hot and humid conditions “places both physical and cognitive strain on athletes, impairing decision-making, concentration, and endurance while also extending recovery times between matches.”
Round Our Way notes that this is a route, not a prediction, meaning that it is a possible path through the FIFA fixture bracket and not a prediction of which team will reach the finals.
It said that Argentina (which places first in FIFA’s men’s world ranking) could have the “hottest of any route to a final,” with 6.7 of their games likely to be in temperatures at or above 28°C.
Canada, meanwhile (which FIFA ranks at 35), would only have about 2.4 matches in performance-impairing temperatures.
In fact, out of the 48 countries competing in the tournament, Canada is among those with the least expected exposure to performance-impairing heat, ranking 47.
“This research shows climate change isn’t a distant threat, but could help decide who wins or loses the world’s biggest football tournament. Players will be competing in levels of heat and humidity that strain the health of even the most highly trained athletes, let alone the fans watching them,” said Roger Harding, co-founder of Round Our Way, in a release.
What about games played in Vancouver?
Even though Climate Central’s analysis finds that climate change accounts for 74 per cent of the hot days that BC Place experiences today, the odds of it increasing heat at any of Vancouver’s seven matches during FIFA are very low.
Researchers from the World Weather Attribution assessed each game day in North America with a heat index called the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), which includes both temperature and humidity.
Physiologists use WBGT as a measure of how effectively a body can cool itself, with a 26°C WBGT considered risky, and a 28°C WBGT or above considered unsafe for players to play, according to the global players’ union.
They found that Vancouver has “relatively safer conditions” compared to other stadiums (like in Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia), but that the likelihood of the extreme values of 28°C WBGT has still doubled since 1994 (the last time North America hosted the World Cup) due to climate change.
Further, out of all the cities with World Cup matches, Vancouver and Seattle have seen the largest increase in event intensity ranges since 1994.
Vancouver’s climate in 2026 is roughly 0.7 degrees Celsius warmer than it was in 1994.