Between the two upcoming elections, it is polling madness in B.C. and in Vancouver, and yet another poll is showing the Conservatives ahead of the BC NDP by a slim margin.
The last poll we covered was from the Angus Reid Institute, conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 3, which showed that the Conservatives had a five-point lead over the “gaining NDP.”
Angus Reid surveyed a randomized sample of 1,013 Canadians, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The latest poll comes from Research Co. It was conducted between Oct. 9 and Oct. 11, based on 808 voters, and it found that the Conservatives still had a lead, albeit a much slimmer one. The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points for the entire sample.
The poll also reveals why voters are confused.
Research Co. found that 44 per cent of decided likely voters would support the Conservatives, versus 42 per cent who would cast their ballot for the BC NDP.
In third place, the BC Green Party showed 8 per cent support.
According to 338Canada’s regional breakdown, the Conservatives lead in every major B.C. region except for Vancouver Island. In Metro Vancouver, the Conservatives have 45 per cent support compared to 43 per cent for the BC NDP.
Another fear, which some were concerned about before the snap election was called, was voter confusion. Research Co. suggests that 46 per cent of survey respondents acknowledged feeling confused with the municipal and provincial elections taking place in the same month.
For clarity’s sake, the municipal election takes place on Oct. 17, while the provincial election takes place on Oct. 24.
The polling agency also points out that a debate is set to take place this week between BC NDP leader David Eby, Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson, and BC Green leader Emily Lowan.
Two-in-five likely voters support the leaders of CentreBC and OneBC in the debate.
Research Co. found that 64 per cent of likely voters are happy that Kerry-Lynne Findlay is out as Conservative Party leader. This sentiment was shared by supporters of every party.
Prior to this poll, Liaison Strategies conducted another poll, finding similar results, showing that the Conservatives led the BC NDP by 43 per cent to 37 per cent, with Eby’s approval falling.
It surveyed a random sample of 1,000 B.C. residents between Oct. 7 and Oct. 8 using “Interactive voice recording technology.” The margin of error was +/- 3.1 percentage points.
“Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census,” it said.
Liaison added that Doerkson was gaining familiarity but “not net favourability.”
Recent news about Eby’s $10-a-day child care likely won’t help his cause.
Polls for the last provincial election in 2024 also showed a very tight race, which reflected the final result. Data from Poliwave in 2024 showed the final polling average with the BC NDP ahead with 44.9 per cent of the vote, versus 43.3 per cent for the Conservatives.
Because the 2024 race was so tight, it took weeks to finally declare a winner before former Conservative party leader John Rustad finally conceded.