'A succession of shocks': B.C. home sales forecast to keep dropping in 2026
B.C. real estate sales are expected to keep dropping in 2026, due to a stagnant economy and the conflict in the Middle East driving energy costs higher.
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2026 Second Quarter Housing Forecast, where it predicted that residential home sales in B.C. will decline by 2.1 per cent this year.
This follows a subdued year for home sales in 2025, where Metro Vancouver home sales were the lowest they had been in 25 years, and over 80 per cent of homes sold below their final asking price. Home sales declined by 5.7 per cent from 2024.
The BCREA expects that average home prices in B.C. will fall from $952,930 to $939,800 (1.4 per cent), since active listings on the market are at their highest level since 2015.
“For the past three years, economic conditions in British Columbia have been shaped not by a single challenge, but by a succession of shocks,” reads the April 2026 Housing Forecast report from the BCREA.
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates to combat pandemic-era inflation, followed by “unpredictable and volatile United States tariffs” in 2025. In 2026, the conflict in the Middle East is pushing energy prices up.
The report states that these shocks have all weighed heavily on household confidence, with costs of essentials like food and shelter rising by about 30 per cent since 2021.
“These increases are not abstract statistics – they have altered day‑to‑day budgeting decisions and eroded any sense of financial slack,” reads the report.
Deloitte forecasts that B.C.’s economy will grow by just 1.2 per cent this year, which has resulted in many people worrying about losing their jobs. While BCREA said the labour market is still producing jobs and wage growth outpaces inflation, economic sentiment is shaped “more by worry about the future.”
“In short, the vibes are bad. And when the outlook feels this uncertain, households are less likely to make major life decisions, such as buying a home. That decision requires confidence in job security, confidence that borrowing costs will not suddenly rise again, and confidence that today’s purchase price will still make sense tomorrow.”
Lower Mainland home sales are especially bad. The BCREA forecasts home sales to drop by nearly one per cent this year in Greater Vancouver, and by 4.5 per cent in the Fraser Valley.
It also expects prices to fall, due to a surge of housing supply coming online this year and weakening demand. Home sales might go down by 2.4 per cent in Greater Vancouver and by 4.4 per cent in the Fraser Valley.
What about next year?
Population growth in B.C. has declined due to the federal government’s reduction of non-permanent residents, which has further softened the housing market. However, the BCREA expects population growth to “normalize” in 2027, which could cause housing demand to pick back up.
While BCREA is anticipating 67,700 units sold in B.C. this year, it’s predicting that the market will pick up in 2027 by 7.7 per cent with sales of 74,000 units.
It thinks the pick-up will be especially prominent in the Lower Mainland, with a 10.6 per cent increase in sales in Greater Vancouver and a 9.1 per cent increase in the Fraser Valley.
It also notes that with lower home prices and several years of “pent-up demand,” there could be a rebound when buyer confidence improves.