Trump's tariffs could have significant impacts on two BC cities

US President Donald Trump’s promise to impose tariffs on Canada has created economic uncertainty across the country, especially in BC.

A new report suggests that some parts of the province may feel the impacts of Trump’s tariffs more than others.

Using Statistics Canada trade data, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce (CCC) recently published a US Tariff Exposure Index, which examines the potential impact of the threatened American tariffs on 41 Canadian cities.

Abbotsford and Mission ranked 15th with a 7.6% chance of feeling the effects of the US tariffs, followed by Chilliwack in 20th place, with a much lower (-1.2%) rating on the tariff exposure index.

While the report listed Abbotsford and Mission together, they are technically two separate cities in the Fraser Valley region.

Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab

“Canada and the U.S. have built a highly integrated and mutually beneficial economic relationship over more than a century, with cross-border trade playing a critical role in both economies,” reads the report.

“Our updated modelling suggests that Trump’s tariff would cause significant economic problems for Canadians and Americans — potentially even causing a recession.”

However, BC cities aren’t the hardest hit by Trump tariffs.

Canadian “hotspots” most vulnerable to US tariffs/CCC

The CCC data highlighted that Canadian cities that export crude oil and energy are the most vulnerable.

“Our modelling estimates that the tariff will impose the steepest hit for the value of Canada’s energy exports, which explains why the highest vulnerabilities are for Saint John, New Brunswick, and Calgary, Alberta,” states the report.

“The massive value at play from crude oil exports (with energy exports worth over $176 billion in 2024) and concerns of passing higher gas prices onto Americans explain why Trump applied a lower tariff on Canada’s energy exports (10% versus 25% for all other export categories).”

The CCC added that several British Columbian cities like Victoria, Nanaimo, and Kamloops have more “diversified trade patterns” with Asia.

On Monday, Trump signed orders imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, which are planned to come into effect on March 12.

Currently, Trump’s proposal to charge 25% on most Canadian goods imported into the US (except 10% on energy) is on pause following a February 3 phone call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which temporarily halted the measures for 30 days.

In response to Trump’s threats, the BC government said it would fast-track a number of critical energy and resource projects.

The provincial government has previously predicted that if Trump follows through with his tariff plans, British Columbia could see a cumulative loss of $69 billion in economic activity between 2025 and 2028.

The province added that its real gross domestic product (GDP) could drop by 0.6% year-over-year in both 2025 and 2026.

Furthermore, 124,000 jobs would be lost in BC over the coming years through 2028, with the largest declines experienced in the natural-resource sector export industries and associated manufacturing, as well as in the transportation and retail sectors. In contrast, the total number of COVID-19-related job losses by June 2020 — three months into the pandemic — was 235,000.

With files from Isabelle Docto