Toronto Raptors face major hurdle in NBA draft lottery race
The Toronto Raptors are in the midst of a battle for the race to the bottom of the NBA standings and the best draft lottery odds.
While no NBA team would ever openly admit to tanking the season, it’s not exactly a secret that rebuilding teams are usually alright with losses that give them better odds at the top pick in the May 12 NBA Draft lottery.
And although Toronto went on a stretch earlier this month where they won six of seven games, a three-game slide has seen them plant their flag among the NBA’s worst teams.
Looking at the reverse league standings, the Raptors currently sit seventh-worst in the NBA after last night’s loss to Golden State, while sitting just half a game out of sixth-worst and one game out of fifth-worst.
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The free-falling Miami Heat have suddenly found themselves as a possible addition to next month’s NBA lottery, although they are currently occupying the Eastern Conference’s final play-in spot. Losers of nine games in a row, the Heat suddenly present a possible major hurdle to Toronto’s draft lottery odds if they keep losing.
Toronto is still 5.5 games off of the Heat in the NBA standings and has less than a one per cent chance of actually overtaking Miami, per Basketball Reference. Even if the Heat’s slide is bad, they’ve still likely got enough wiggle room to stay ahead of Toronto.
Of course, there’s also another longtime rival that’s had a season to forget: the Philadelphia 76ers. Season-opening odds had the 76ers with the third-best projected win total in the Eastern Conference, but a combination of injuries ā including former MVP Joel Embiid, who played just 19 games before getting shut down for the season ā have led Philadelphia with what has been arguably the NBA’s most disappointing season.
With just 12 games remaining, Toronto seems most likely to end up somewhere in the bottom 5-7 range heading into the draft lottery. Landing in that range at the end of the season means their odds at the top pick would land anywhere from 7.5 to 10.5 per cent, while their odds at landing a top-four pick go from 31.9 per cent to 42.1 per cent.
Tankathon.com odds at the draft lottery. Red lettering indicates the pick is involved in a trade if it lands at that spot.
The biggest hurdles for Toronto, however, might be themselves and their remaining schedule.
A total of 10 of their 12 games remaining are against teams also currently out of the postseason position, with only Chicago and Detroit left on their schedule slated to play extra games this year.
Despite often putting younger players in the lineup late in games and resting starters over the last stretch, Toronto’s players have shown that they’re not necessarily going to back down without a fight.
Given that five games this month alone have been decided by five points or less, the Raptors seem likely to keep their fanbase guessing on any given night whether they’ll end up with a win or a loss.
While there’s no certainty about how the final few days of the season will go, it’s definitely not going to be a stretch drive for the faint of heart.