Who's the odd man out of Toronto Blue Jays rotation after Scherzer signing?
For all the talk of a slow offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays added a future Hall of Famer to their mix late Thursday afternoon.
As many Torontonians began their post-work commute home, the news dropped that the Blue Jays signed three-time Cy Young-winning starter Max Scherzer.
At 40 years old and on a one-year contract, Scherzer is definitely much closer to the end of his career than the start.
But besides all the hoopla that comes from adding one of the generation’s best pitcher, the Blue Jays now have another problem to solve: what exactly does their five-man pitching rotation look like?
The last time we did this exercise in late December, the Jays were yet to make any major splashes in free agency.
Based on how things shaped up at the time, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodriguez seemed like the most logical mix of five players on the roster to begin the season as the team’s five starters.
But where does Scherzer slot into all this, and who does he take out?
Blue Jays rotation after Scherzer
From 2013 to 2021, Scherzer finished outside of the top five in Cy Young voting on just one occasion: the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
But it’s clear he’s a little past his prime, as he made just nine starts last season, missing much of the last two years with a herniated disc and thumb issues. It’s tough to tell exactly what version of Scherzer the Blue Jays will be getting. Getting through the 2025 campaign with 30+ starts seems a bit unlikely given his age and injury history, but the Blue Jays will likely give him every shot to prove he’s still got it.
Gausman and Berrios have been two of the American League’s best pitchers during their time in Toronto, so their spots in the rotation don’t seem to be much up for debate. Barring an injury or a sudden massive dip in performance, their pedigree should secure them the 1-2 spots in Toronto’s rotation.
But then that’s where things get interesting.
Bassitt finished 10th in American Cy Young voting in 2023 in his first season in Toronto, though his performance dipped a bit this past year, dropping from a 3.60 earned run average in 2023 to a 4.16 in 2024. Despite a bit of a slide in production, the 35-year-old veteran of 185 starts — in the third year of a $63 million deal with Toronto — should fit into Toronto’s rotation nicely.
However, given his expiring deal, he’s a prime trade candidate if the Blue Jays get off to a tough start, and might not quite fit into the long-term future of the franchise past this year. Of course, the same could be said for Scherzer, which will make it interesting to monitor how exactly Toronto will choose to operate with their expiring veteran pitchers. To start the year, it seems to make sense to keep the more durable Bassitt third in the rotation, and then slot Scherzer behind him.
If all goes well, Francis has a legitimate case to be made as Toronto’s best pitcher this season, but the thing is: he’ll still have to prove it. The American League pitcher of the month for August last season, Francis had an electric two-month stretch where he was nearly unhittable to close out the season. But the biggest knock on Francis is the question mark over his ability to do it for a full season, as he’s still only 13 starts into his MLB career. Given the veteran presence ahead of him, slotting Francis as the fifth starter and giving him a chance to work his way up seems like the most sensible course of action.
That likely leaves Rodriguez as the odd man out for Toronto, who had a rocky 2024 campaign in his first year in the major league system.
A star of the 2023 World Baseball Classic for Cuba, he picked up just one win in his 21 starts, putting up a 4.47 ERA in 86.2 innings. But given that Rodriguez signed a five-year deal with Toronto, they’ll likely give him some time in the bullpen, and use him as an occasional starter should any injuries or unplanned absences arise.
Past Rodriguez, Alek Manoah is the obvious next man up, despite all the struggles he’s dealt with over the last two seasons. With Manoah still expected to be rehabbing an injury come Opening Day, it’s hard to really foreshadow where he could fit among the Jays once he returns.
After that, Jake Bloss, a 23-year-old right-handed pitcher who was acquired in a trade with Houston centred around Yusei Kikuchi, had three starts for the Astros last season, and is the most likely next man in the rotation should there be an injury or other opening among Toronto’s five current starters.