4 lessons learned from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2023

Mistakes were made by the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays. Not just by the players, but the coaching staff and the front office. It all ended with a bitter season of disappointment.

As the Blue Jays brass assembles to dissect what went wrong, one thing is clear; changes need to be made ahead of the 2024 campaign. It’s a similar tone compared to last year’s disastrous postseason exit, only worse. This time, it’s compounded by yet another soul-crushing conclusion.

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Making these mistakes is one thing, but duplicating them and then expecting an automatic course correction is another. During this time of reflection, there are several key lessons the Blue Jays organization should take away after flaming out for the third consecutive postseason.

1. Leaning too far into run prevention can be costly

The Blue Jays led MLB in defensive runs saved in 2023 by a wide margin, 14 more than their next closest opponent. They nearly doubled their DRS year-over-year after the additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, and the stellar defensive play by Matt Chapman and Alejandro Kirk.

But there is such a thing as leaning too far into the defensive component of the game. Almost half of the Blue Jays’ roster was comprised by glove-first players, which cost the team heavily when it came to run creation.

The Blue Jays front office boasted about focusing on run prevention last offseason. They acquired several defensive-minded players; they reinforced the bullpen and solidified the starting rotation. But they did very little to reinforce a lineup that lost Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

As a result of several players having disappointing offensive seasons and the team rostering stellar defensive players, the Blue Jays were below league average in runs scored per game in 2023. In 2022, they ranked fourth overall in runs scored per game.

Building up the bullpen and improving the defensive core wasn’t an inherently bad approach, but it came at the cost of scoring runs.

2. Blue Jays need to trust eye test sometimes, not just the process

The decision to remove Jose Berrios from Game 2 after 3 innings and 47 pitches will forever haunt the 2023 Blue Jays.

This was the second consecutive season when the Blue Jays made a grave mistake in a pivotal playoff game. Last year, they took Kevin Gausman out early with an 8-1 lead in the sixth inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, and we all know how that panned out.

By blatantly disregarding the eye test and remaining steadfast in their process, the Blue Jays outplayed themselves. Numbers don’t always tell the story, and the Jays could’ve called an audible and let Berrios pitch deeper into that game.

Instead, their by-the-book approach blew up in their faces. This is now twice in two years that decisions like these have been the undoing of the Blue Jays. By micromanaging games from the top down, this team exposed their flawed philosophy.

The decision to take Berrios out of that game was made well in advance of the fourth inning, and therein lies the defect. By removing the human element out of the game, this team allowed the numbers — not the eye test — to dictate what should happen.

3. Young starting pitching can be volatile

Last year, Alek Manoah finished third in Cy Young voting, he started Game 1 of their 2022 AL Wild Card Series and was tabbed as the 2023 Opening Day starter. He finished the 2023 campaign not even on the Blue Jays roster, with more questions than answers.

There hasn’t been this precipitous of a fall, maybe ever, in team history. To go from one of the brightest young pitchers in the American League to a roster outcast is unprecedented.

It’s no secret the Blue Jays have struggled over the years to draft and develop starting pitching. Many organizations struggle with the same plight, but it looked like the Blue Jays had unearthed a gem after Manoah’s breakout in 2022.

What they learned is that young starting pitching can be extremely volatile. Development on the starting pitching side is rarely a linear process, and the Blue Jays and Manoah took a step backwards in 2023.

4. Blue Jays hitters moving from the NL don’t always translate

If there’s one player who encapsulated the offensive potential of the 2023 Blue Jays, it was Varsho. He clubbed a career-high 27 home runs with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2022 and slashed .235/.302/.443 in 158 games. There was potential for him to be even better in 2023.

Moving to the hitter-friendly confines of Rogers Centre — with the fences brought in — had the opposite effect for Varsho. As a team, the Blue Jays hit worse at home than on the road, and Varsho was no exception.

Brandon Belt was another hitter who came over from the National League, and his home-run total dropped from 29 in 2021 to 19 in 2023. His slugging percentage also dropped 107 points between those seasons.

Projection models expected Varsho and Belt to have much better seasons than they put forth in 2023. Those two hitters weren’t the complete undoing of this team, but they were a microcosm of a much bigger issue with this team; their inability to come up with a big hit.

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