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What analytics say about the Raptors' ideal starting lineup

Adam Laskaris
Adam Laskaris
|
Dec 5 2022, 6:36 pm
What analytics say about the Raptors' ideal starting lineup
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Raptors might not be in a full-blown identity crisis, but they’re at least beginning to ask a couple of existential questions.

Sitting at 12-11 and seventh place in the Eastern Conference, Toronto has kept its head above water in an up-and-down season.

In varying degrees, they’ve dealt with injuries to nearly every rotation player, with just O.G. Anunoby and rookie Christian Koloko playing all 23 games so far.

The biggest storyline out of the last week with Toronto’s lineup came with the shock benching of  Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr. out of the starting lineup ahead of last Monday’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

While Barnes returned to the starting five the next game, Trent has now come off the bench three times in a row for the first time in his Raptors career.

“We know he’s a starter in the league,” Anunoby said about Trent following Saturday’s game against the Orlando Magic. “I think every team knows as a starter. He’s a great player. So no matter where he’s coming off the bench or starting, we know he can make an impact and affect the game both ways.”

Eleven different players have found their way into the Raptors’ starting lineup this year, with seven different players starting eight games or more.

But with so many players out of the lineup, it’s been, well, time to explore a few different options, with no real sense of a “normal” look for this year’s Raptors.

Legend:

3 O.G. Anunoby
4 Scottie Barnes
5
Precious Achiuwa
21
Thaddeus Young
23 Fred VanVleet
25 Chris Boucher
32 Otto Porter Jr.
33 Gary Trent Jr.
35 Christian Koloko
41
Juancho HernangĂłmez
43 Pascal Siakam
45 Dalano Banton

Here’s every lineup that has hit the floor for at least 10 minutes together this season for the Raptors, ranked by net rating, a stat that estimates how many points each unit scores per 100 possessions together:

Lineups Minutes Net Rating Off. Rating Def. Rating
43 – 23 – 3 – 33 – 5 25 69.1 143.1 74
21 – 23 – 3 – 4 – 35 18 60.6 136.4 75.8
21 – 23 – 3 – 33 – 4 16 54.4 125 70.6
21 – 23 – 3 – 25 – 4 14 38 150 112
21 – 41 – 23 – 3 – 25 11 37.7 128.6 90.9
43 – 23 – 3 – 4 – 35 38 31.6 127.8 96.3
43 – 3 – 25 – 33 – 4 16 9.1 93.9 84.8
21 – 43 – 41 – 23 – 3 15 6.9 106.9 100
43 – 3 – 33 – 4 – 35 43 5.9 113.3 107.4
21 – 41 – 23 – 3 – 4 29 1.6 93.7 92.1
Raptors’ Average N/A 1.4 113.0 111.6
League Averages N/A 0.0 112.7 112.7
43 – 23 – 3 – 33 – 4 85 -3.5 111.9 115.4
23 – 3 – 33 – 4 – 35 54 -7.9 112.6 120.5
32 – 25 – 33 – 5 – 4 16 -25 100 125
43 – 23 – 3 – 33 – 35 22 -28.9 85.7 114.6
21 – 32 – 3 – 33 – 4 11 -45.8 66.7 112.5
21 – 23 – 3 – 4 – 45 13 -56 96 152

A few takeaways:

  • The Raptors’ best lineup this season by net rating features Precious Achiuwa, who is currently out week-to-week with a right-ankle sprain.
  • Just three lineups have played over 40 minutes or more together this season, with the combination of five of VanVleet, Anunoby, Trent, Barnes, Siakam and Koloko making up all of those lineups.
  • Two of those three most frequently used lineups have a net negative rating, which doesn’t exactly serve as a ringing endorsement.
  • Lineups featuring Thad Young are a case of the extremes, as he’s found himself being slotted in all sorts of different combinations.

Of the players who are healthy and have played a significant series of time together, there’s one lineup combination that has performed pretty respectfully in their 38 minutes together: VanVleet, Siakam, Barnes, Anunoby, and Koloko, putting together a net rating of 31.6.

Coincidentally, it’s been that starting lineup in each of the last two games.

Thirty-eight minutes is far from a great sample size to tell that something has been working, especially when much of their play together has been against the 5-19 Orlando Magic.

But on the flip side, it’s been pretty clear that Toronto’s other high-usage lineups haven’t quite been working all that well either.

There’s still plenty of tinkering to do over the course of the 82-game season, and perhaps Toronto gives Precious Achiuwa a bit of a longer look in the starting lineup whenever he’s ready to return.

But if the Raptors’ coaching staff is seeing the same numbers that we are, don’t be surprised if Trent remains the first man off the bench for Toronto for the foreseeable future.

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