Ontario's long-range winter forecast may not be what you're expecting

On the tail of a new winter weather outlook for Ontario from The Old Farmers’ Almanac, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has released its own long-range forecast for the season which, like the Almanac’s prediction, may spell a little bit of disappointment (or at least, uncertainty) for those hoping for ample snowfall leading up to the holidays.

The Toronto area’s current conditions, including recent snowfall, suggest the deep freeze of a traditional winter is already upon us. But, the weather agency has some varying and, unfortunately, extremely vague forecasts for upcoming temperatures and precipitation amounts from December to February.

Per the ECCC’s most updated seasonal projections for the nation, the next few months are looking warmer than usual in Ontario — especially in the north of the province — with a greater chance of above-normal temps (40%) than near-normal (36%) or below normal (25%) in Toronto specifically.

ECCC

As for the white stuff, we are somewhat more likely to get a little more rain and/or snow in the coming months (38%) than a normal (34%) or unusually low (29%) amount, but the weather body writes that there is “no clear signal for precipitation” anywhere aside from the western and northwestern parts of the country, where higher levels are expected, primarily in December.

This could mean rain or snow for Ontario, depending on the temperatures, of course, which are again slated to be on the warmer side.

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As the weather body explained in a virtual presentation on the projections this week, “Above-normal temperatures are strongly favoured across Northern Ontario, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and most of Nunavut, with a slightly elevated chance of above-normal temperatures across the rest of Canada.”

But if the mercury does indeed drop — like the Old Farmers’ Almanac is calling for from the end of December onwards — then we could be in for some decent hits of snowfall.

Here’s what the next two months of winter weather could look like in Ontariohttps://t.co/t9qwHsRk3a

— blogTO (@blogTO) December 5, 2024

Normal, for the record, refers to the average temperature or precipitation in a region over the last 30 years, though the agency’s maps are “probabilistic in nature,” so only show where is most likely to be warmer, colder, wetter or drier than normal, but not by how much. And, nothing is guaranteed.

“The best-known influences on year-to-year variations in Canada’s winter climate are El Niño and La Niña. La Niña tends to bring colder than normal winters to Canada, especially in the west, and a slight tendency for higher than normal precipitation in the west and around the Great Lakes. Predictions for this year have pointed toward a weak La Niña,” ECCC meteorologists said in their briefing.

Speaking of the potential for winter storms, especially in the New Year, they said “La Niña does tend to draw the storm track down toward the Great Lakes and that’s what’s responsible for the slight chance of enhanced precipitation. So given the usual below-freezing temperatures in that region, that could suggest a tendency for more snowfall as well.”

ECCC

They did note, though, that there is “no clear signal for snowpack” in Southern Ontario at this time — essentially, there is just not enough data this far out to tell how things will go.