Ontario is forecasting 1,000 daily COVID-19 cases in the first half of October as the province heads in an upward trajectory.
On Wednesday, the province’s top health officials released modelling data for the province, noting Ontario is experiencing a second surge in cases similar to what other jurisdictions have experienced.
“The province is providing the public with full transparency about the consequences if Ontarians are not vigilant in adhering to public health measures. The Chief Medical Officer of Health says Ontarians must be vigilant in adhering to public health measures to reduce the number of new cases and the spread of the virus,” the release notes.
Key highlights from the modelling show that Ontario is currently on an upward trajectory similar to what its other jurisdictions, including Victoria, Australia and Michigan in the United States, have experienced.
Cases are currently doubling approximately every 10 to 12 days, as the growth in cases was initially in the 20 to 39 age group but now cases are “climbing in all age groups.”
While there could be 1,000 new daily cases in the first half of October, it’s also predicted that admissions will likely rise with an increase in COVID-19 patients being hospitalized.
The health officials said that Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 in ICU beds per day if cases continue to grow.
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“COVID-19 continues to be a serious threat in our communities, and today’s modelling shows the importance of adhering to public health measures,” Health Minister Christine Elliott said.
“Over the summer we saw how our collective efforts helped slow the transmission of COVID-19, we must not let our guard down now as we head into the cold and flu season. We all need to do our part and continue to follow all public health measures in place to contain and stop the spread of the virus.”
According to Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams, in order to reduce the spread, people must adhere to public health measures.
“With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities,” Williams said.
“We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.”
The Chief Medical Officer of Health and other public health experts will continue to closely monitor the evolving situation to advise if and when public health restrictions need further adjustment, or if a community-specific or region-specific approach should be taken.
On Wednesday, the province reported 625 new coronavirus cases, with 288 of those being in Toronto.