What would an offer sheet for Toronto Maple Leafs' Knies look like?
For all the talk of Toronto Maple Leafs stars John Tavares and Mitch Marner possibly leaving town this summer in free agency, there’s a third name that the team might have as much trouble keeping around.
After two seasons with the Maple Leafs, 22-year-old forward Matthew Knies has become one of Toronto’s key forwards in his young NHL career.
A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, Knies is a restricted free agent heading into this summer after his entry-level deal is set to expire. Toronto still has his negotiating rights, but after a season where he put up 29 goals and 29 assists in 78 games, there’s no doubt Knies has been noticed by other teams around the league.
Knies is a candidate for a potential offer sheet, in which the 31 other NHL teams could sign him to a deal and compensate Toronto with a series of draft picks if they choose not to match the deal.
What would an offer sheet for Knies look like?
AFP Analytics projects Knies at two possible contract options for Knies: seven years, at a US$7,222,983 annual average value, or two years, US$4,178,125.00 annual average value.
Given the current compensation model for the NHL, the Leafs would receive either one first-round pick, one second-round pick, and one third-round pick in the first range, or just a lone second-round pick in the second projected range.
- $11,700,193 and up four first-round picks
- $9,360,154 – $11,700,192: two first-round picks, one second-round pick, one third-round pick
- $7,020,114 – $9,360,153: one first-round pick, one second-round pick, one third-round pick
- $4,680,077 – $7,020,113: one first-round pick, one third-round Pick
- $2,340,038 – $4,680,076: one second-round pick
- $1,544,425 – $2,340,037: one third-round pick
- Under $1,544,424: no compensation
In any case, Toronto would have the right to match the deal and keep Knies with the Leafs.
What does Knies think about staying with the Maple Leafs?
“I want to be here,” Knies said on Tuesday at his year-end media availability. “I want to play here. That’s all that matters to me.”
While offer sheets are often threatened for talented players like Knies, almost all restricted free agents end up signing with their original teams.
In the past 10 years, only four players have signed using an offer sheet, with only Sebastian Aho staying with his original team, the Carolina Hurricanes, after agreeing to terms with the Montreal Canadiens.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Dylan Holloway, and Phillip Broberg all left their original franchises, with Kotkaniemi going from Montreal to Carolina, while the other two left last summer to the St. Louis Blues after making the Stanley Cup Final with the Edmonton Oilers.