Why Tom Wilson is a sensible trade target for Leafs this summer
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: the Toronto Maple Leafs are set to face one of their most important offseasons in team history.
In the first summer with new general manager Brad Treliving, Toronto has expectations of advancing further into the postseason than their second-round exit to the Florida Panthers this past spring.
Heading into the final year of both Auston Matthews‘ and William Nylander’s contracts, Toronto has questions to be answered about the long-term viability and effectiveness of their core group as the franchise chases its first Stanley Cup since 1967.
Toronto isn’t expected to be a major player in free agency this summer, with limited cap space to land a big name, while they’re already slated to likely lose players like Michael Bunting and Alex Kerfoot to other organizations.
But what about the trade market for a short-term jolt to their forward group?
Enter Tom Wilson, the 29-year-0ld Toronto native coming into the final season of his contract with the Washington Capitals.
A one-time playoff foe of his hometown team in the 2017 postseason, Wilson is a perennial candidate for “most annoying player in the league,” with his 1,299 career penalty minutes an indicator of his oft-borderline, physical style of play that’s cast him as one of the league’s top power forwards during his 10 seasons in the NHL.
The perfect example of the type of player you hate to play against but would love to have on your team, Wilson is a player Toronto should seriously consider making an offer for in a trade this summer.
Set to make $5.1 million next season with the Capitals in the final year of a six-year deal, Wilson is coming off a shortened season where he had 13 goals, nine assists and a plus-minus of -13 in 33 games this season after returning from an ACL injury.
But his best days could still be ahead of him, and there’s enough reason to believe that Toronto could be a sensible destination for him. He’s just a year removed from a 24-goal season where he added 28 assists for a total of 52 points in 2021-22.
Workshopping a move to the Leafs for a series of draft picks and prospects could be in the best interest of both franchises, with Washington caught in no man’s land after a disappointing 80-point campaign in 2022-23 that saw them some 12 points off of a playoff berth.
The franchise hasn’t won a playoff series since their Stanley Cup victory five years ago, but has seven forwards — Wilson included — set to make upwards of $5 million or more next season.
The Leafs, meanwhile, have got to be in win-now mode as they look to optimize the prime of their core group centred around Matthews, Nylander, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly. Toronto has just seven forwards signed for next season and will be seeing some serious roster turnover even if they aren’t set to make a major trade this offseason.
A possible framework would likely see Washington retaining part of Wilson’s cap hit for next season in order to allow Toronto flexibility for further moves, but unless they’re suddenly thrusting themselves into playoff contention, that shouldn’t be much of a hold-up for Toronto to negotiate.
Wilson has a seven-team no-trade clause per CapFriendly, but it’s hard to imagine he’d have his hometown Leafs on that list.
On the flip side, there are plenty of reasons for Wilson to want to try to stay long-term with the Capitals via a contract extension this summer or next: Washington is the only NHL franchise he’s ever known since being drafted in the first round back in 2012, and the organization he won the Stanley Cup with back in 2018.
Wilson’s childhood hero and longtime teammate Alex Ovechkin is just 73 goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time NHL goal mark, and it’s possible that has enough pull for him to want to stay in Washington past this season.
But if Washington is willing to part ways with their veteran winger, Toronto makes as much sense as any other contender looking for a bit of extra juice in their forward group.