Toronto Maple Leafs don't look like a playoff team if Marner walks for free

The Toronto Maple Leafs, if nothing else, have been remarkably consistent over much of the last decade.

Since 2016-17, the fabled rookie season of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, the Leafs rank third in the league with 408 regular season wins.

They’re the only team to make the playoffs every season in that span, though most Leafs fans would argue that feat means very little given their repeated playoff disappointments.

But with an uncertain future ahead for the Maple Leafs — particularly around pending free agent Marner (and John Tavares) — it does beg the question: are the Leafs, as currently constructed, even set to make the playoffs for a tenth year in a row?

Will the Leafs make the playoffs next year?

Nobody likes going into a season seeing their team on the outside of the playoff picture. But in a league where half the teams see their seasons end after 82 games, someone’s got to miss out on the postseason: and maybe it’s the Leafs’ time.

Five teams that made the playoffs last year missed it in 2024-25: the Vancouver Canucks, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, and Boston Bruins.

Three of those teams — Boston, Vancouver, and the Rangers — finished higher than the Leafs in the standings a year ago, with the Predators finishing three points behind them. All three of those teams also won a playoff round, as did the Leafs this year.

One of the best stats for predicting how a team will finish in the standings is their goal differential: because of course, the more goals you score over your opponent on average, the better you’re likely to do over time.

In 2024-25, Toronto’s +37 goal differential was eighth best in the league. At all strengths, Mitch Marner coincidentally was a… +37 goal differential this past season, third on the team behind William Nylander  (+55) and John Tavares (+53).

With Marner off the ice this past season, the Leafs had an expected goals mark of just 45.9 per cent per MoneyPuck, which would rank them 30th of 32 teams.

That places them a lot closer to a bottom-feeder than to a good or even average NHL team, propped up by star players and a strong goaltending duo of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. They might be able to sort things out in the coming months, but the underlying numbers surely aren’t pretty.

In his nine NHL seasons, Marner has dipped below a 50 per cent goal share just once at 5v5, bottoming out at 48.28 per cent in a shortened 2019-20 campaign.

Otherwise, he’s been at 53 per cent or above each season, coming in at 59.48 per cent this past year, per Natural Stat Trick. He’s eighth in the league in scoring since making his debut, racking up a team-high 741 points.

Outside of Tavares with 74 points, the only free agent hitting the market this summer with over 70 points this past season is Dallas’ Matt Duchene, who put up 30 goals and 52 assists in 2024-25.

It’s a delicate tightrope for Leafs general manager Brad Treliving to try to replace Marner’s production if he departs, even in the aggregate.

How good are the Leafs without Marner?

All time, the Leafs have had a 1.11 points earned per game when Marner’s been out of the lineup at a 0.546 points percentage (a 91-point pace), and 1.28 points per game with him in the lineup, a .645 points percentage (and a 104-point pace).

Coincidentally, 91 points was the exact cutoff for the Eastern Conference playoff race this year, with both the New Jersey Devils and Montreal Canadiens touching that mark.

Whatever qualms you may have about his playoff performances over the years, the Leafs have never had too much trouble simply making it to the postseason while Marner’s been on the team.

Of course, the Leafs have had other players help drive that success, but few NHL teams get better by losing one of their best players for nothing, even if they do have a high salary cost attached to them.

Marner’s departure wouldn’t necessarily be a zero-sum game: any replacement player could still likely have a positive impact on the team’s performance, likely playing alongside Auston Matthews on the team’s top line.

With a relatively weak free agent class, uncertainty about the performance of Matthews given his season-long injury struggles, and the mounting pressure on the franchise, there’s no guarantees of Toronto repeating their strong regular seasons over the last few years if Marner heads out of town.

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