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Is the "Casey curse" real? Looking at the Raptors' history against their former coach

Adam Laskaris
Adam Laskaris
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Nov 14 2022, 4:27 pm
Is the "Casey curse" real? Looking at the Raptors' history against their former coach
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Things have always seemed a little bit harder for the Toronto Raptors whenever they’ve faced off against one specific opponent: Dwane Casey’s Detroit Pistons.

Casey, as you may recall, coached the Raptors from 2011-2018, leading the team to five consecutive playoff appearances and their first-ever Eastern Conference Finals berth.

But after being swept out of the second round of the playoffs by LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers in consecutive seasons in 2017 and 2018, Toronto opted for a change, firing Casey and appointing his assistant, Nick Nurse, as head coach.

Casey then signed with the Detroit Pistons that same offseason, moving just a few hours down the road to a rebuilding franchise.

Things got doubly awkward by Casey winning the NBA Coach of the Year award after leading Toronto to a 59-win season, but still getting the boot.

You probably know the rest of the story: Nurse won the title with Toronto in his first year as head coach and won coach of the year in 2019-20.

While he hasn’t always been completely loved by Raptors fans for his unique coaching style, he’s far and away the most successful head coach in franchise history.

But he’s not all that good at beating his former mentor.

Casey has gone 9-3 against Toronto since 2018, including six consecutive wins against the Raptors. And it doesn’t seem to have any other logical explanation than spite.

In total, Casey has a 107-209 record with the Pistons in his coaching career. He’s 9-3 against the Raptors since 2018 and 98-206 against everybody else.

Put another way, 8.4% of Dwane Casey’s wins in Detroit have come against the Raptors. The Raptors make up 3.3% of the league.

But is there any logical explanation for why Casey does so well against Toronto yet struggles mightily against everyone else? Or is it just random math?

The most telling stat is that six of the nine wins for Detroit are within five points, including the first three back in 2018-2019.

In a game with as many possessions as basketball, any circumstances — a clanked shot, a missed pass, a rogue foul call — can sway the game in either direction.

Toronto’s wins, meanwhile, have all been by at least 12 points or more. If the game is close, both teams always have a chance in pro sports, and Toronto has just gotten the wrong side of that luck, well, six of six times so far.

You could look at injuries if you wanted: Toronto was without O.G. Anunoby and Fred VanVleet in their last loss to Detroit on March 3, 2022, and without Gary Trent Jr. when they fell on January 14. Hell, back on November 13, 2021, they had Goran Dragic starting one of just five games he ever played for the Raptors. Maybe they just didn’t have the team chemistry.

Any given night, you can probably find a reason that explains Toronto’s loss — it’s just when you string them together, it all gets a little weird.

So, is the Casey curse real? Well, if you want it to be. Makes about as much sense as any other explanation for Toronto’s incompetence against the Pistons.

The Raptors and the Pistons tip off at 7 pm ET tonight, but they’ll be without three starters in Gary Trent Jr., Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet.

If there was ever a time to break a curse…

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