Canada's home sales slowly climb as buyers return to the market | Daily Hive

A low-rise condominium building in Surrey. (Elena Alex Ferns/Shutterstock)

Canada’s housing market continued to show signs of life in October 2025, with home sales rising slightly for the sixth time in the past seven months. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), sales recorded through MLS systems across the country were up 0.9 per cent from September 2025, providing some possible signs of growing buyer confidence after a brief pause at the end of summer.

CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart explained that the shift is likely tied to borrowing costs becoming more manageable.

“With interest rates now almost in stimulative territory, housing markets are expected to continue to become more active heading into 2026,” said Cathcart. “That said, we’re still dealing with a fair amount of economic uncertainty that could keep the pace of growth modest.”

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Even with the month-to-month lift, activity remains below 2024’s level. Sales in October 2025 were still 4.3 per cent lower compared to October 2024. At the same time, the number of newly listed homes fell by 1.4 per cent, tightening market conditions slightly. With fewer new listings coming online, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 52.2 per cent, hovering comfortably within what CREA considers a balanced housing market.

Prices appear to be stabilizing as well. CREA’s home price index inched up 0.2 per cent from the previous month, though it remains three per cent lower than it was a year ago. The national average selling price in October 2025 reached $690,195, down 1.1 per cent year-over-year.

More homes are available than this time last year, but overall supply is still close to typical levels for the fall season. Roughly 189,000 properties were listed for sale at the end of October 2025, an increase of just over seven per cent from the same month in 2024. Meanwhile, inventory is holding steady at about 4.4 months — slightly tighter than the long-term average of five months, but far from the extremes seen during pandemic-era bidding frenzies.

As winter approaches — usually the slowest period for real estate transactions — experts are watching to see whether growing interest continues to build below the surface. CREA Chair Valerie Paquin believes demand is strengthening, even if it isn’t fully visible yet. She expects that the Spring 2026 market could be the moment when many would-be buyers decide to jump back in.

For now, the overall picture is one of cautious optimism. Prices are no longer falling sharply, buyers are gradually returning, and supply remains manageable. If interest rates continue to ease, Canada could see a much more active housing landscape in the year ahead.

RBC Economics had a similar assessment on Canada’s real estate market outlook, based on its newly released bulletin yesterday on October 2025’s performance.

“Interest rate cuts, no doubt, contributed to an uptick in demand last month, though the stage had been set by rebuilding confidence since summer as worst-case economic scenarios faded,” reads RBC’s bulletin, deeming this to be “fragile momentum.”

“The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts in September and October further improved affordability for buyers, lowering ownership costs at a time when home values have moderated in parts of the country in the past year. Rate reductions will likely to draw more buyers to the market, unlocking some pent-up demand accumulated during the period of elevated borrowing costs.”

RBC also stated that a two-year buildup in inventory has kept the housing supply pipeline robust, especially in B.C. and Ontario.

For the 2026 outlook, RBC anticipates a gradual recovery supported by lower interest rates, improving job prospects, and rebuilding confidence. But affordability challenges in the major markets, the federal government’s reduced immigration targets, economic uncertainty, and the risk of trade war escalation could constrain the pace of recovery.

A market bulletin issued by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) earlier this month forecasts the average MLS price in the West Coast province will grow by four per cent year-over-year to $0.996 million in 2026, with the number of home sales climbing by 12.8 per cent year-over-year to 81,700 units in 2026. The jurisdictions of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board could see total annual home sales climb by 19.6 per cent and 21.7 per cent, respectively, year-over-year.

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