What the end of winter and start of spring weather may look like in Alberta
The official end to winter and the start to spring are a little over a month away, and the newest weather outlooks for Alberta are hinting at an interesting trend over the coming months.
Made at the end of last month, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) says the Canadian seasonal prediction system is an ensemble prediction system whose objective is to forecast the evolution of meteorological trends over the next season.
Looking at the forecast probability of temperature above, below, and normal across the country from February to April, it’s looking like it will be very pleasant.
Southern and most of central and northern Alberta is blanketed by a 40 to 50 per cent chance of being above normal, which is music to our ears.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
The forecast probability of precipitation for Alberta from now through April is also hinting at a wet one, with the majority of the province set to see a good chance of being above-normal.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
If you were curious about how our averages for this time of year shake out for YEG and YYC, according to ECCC, the average high for Edmonton around this time of year is -4°C, while the average low is -13°C.
The average high for Calgary around this time of year is zero, while the average low is -12°C.
Winter is officially set to end on Sunday, March 20; however, Albertans know the risk of heavy snow and cool temperatures can linger well past that official date.
The ECCC seasonal forecasts are based on a 20-member ensemble of predictions, 10 members from each of two coupled atmosphere-ocean-land physical climate models. The forecast probabilities are estimated by first computing the anomalies or departures from normal for each ensemble member and then applying the calibration procedure to these values.