Advanced stats reveal reason behind Oilers' PK struggles
The Edmonton Oilers have very clearly struggled with killing penalties this year and advanced stats may just prove the reason behind it.
It was cause for celebration that the Oilers were able to go an entire game without allowing a power-play goal during last night’s 4-3 OT win over the New York Islanders. Before that, Edmonton’s penalty kill had allowed goals in six straight games.
With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that the Oilers currently rank dead last in the NHL with a PK success rate of just 61%, a far cry from the Nashville Predators’ league-best mark of 90.9%.
Despite these poor results, it appears that advanced stats actually like how the Oilers’ PK is performing.
TSN’s Travis Yost posted some analytical breakdowns across the league as we reach mid-November, revealing that the Oilers’ PK is at the top of the league when it comes to expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) but is dead last when it comes to actual goals against per 60 (GA/60).
NHL league ranks after ~ 20% of the season. pic.twitter.com/DjRhWAXUDs
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) November 13, 2024
This means that the Oilers are the best in the league when it comes to preventing high-danger chances on net when on the PK but have somehow found a way to leak the most goals against them.
It’s a stunning disparity, but one that points to a clear culprit: lacklustre goaltending.
Yost went on to comment about the anomaly that is the Oilers penalty kill, stating that the duo of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have a nasty save percentage of .692 while shorthanded.
And it's real! Oilers goalies shorthanded: 69.2 per cent.
(!!!!!!!!!!!) https://t.co/wonCYiTaZR
— Travis Yost (@travisyost) November 13, 2024
It’s not a secret that the Oilers have struggled to get quality goaltending this season and have struggled as a result. Both Skinner and Pickard are near the bottom of the league when it comes to goals saved above expected (GSAx) and are putting up overall save percentages in the .880 range.
What is surprising is just how poor they have been on the PK despite the team in front of them putting up a pretty decent effort to eliminate quality chances. It seems like every quality chance is winding up in the back of the net lately.
Luckily, there is a precedent for this Oilers team for bad goaltending to find a way to correct itself. Skinner actually had worse numbers this time last season and wound up finding a way to rebound and helped the team make a long run to the Stanley Cup Final.
He’ll have to find a way to do that again if he wants the outside noise to stop.