Numbers show Skinner is owning Campbell in battle for Oilers' crease
If the Edmonton Oilers didn’t have a full-on goaltending controversy brewing before, they do now.
Jack Campbell, the Oilers’ $25 million man, has struggled mightily through his first month and a bit with his new club, while rookie Stuart Skinner has been lights out by every metric in comparison to his veteran counterpart.
And it’s set the stage for the slumping Campbell, in his first season of a five-year deal, to take a backup role for the time being.
Skinner’s started four straight, after all. And it could be five when the Oilers face the New York Islanders on Wednesday.
“[Campbell]’s put in a lot of work. He’s feeling good. I have no doubt he’s going to give us what he has in his next start, whenever that is,” coach Jay Woodcroft said Tuesday.
“I think confidence is earned, and usually it starts right here on the practice rink. Jack’s a popular teammate. He works his tail off and he knows he’s better than he’s showed. We know he’s better than he’s showed. He’s put a lot of work in over the last week. When he gets his next start we’re excited for him because he’s a great teammate and someone people want to play hard for.”
"It doesnāt matter who is in the net we want to make sure that we are starting better as a team. When we start well we play well."
Coach Woodcroft speaks after a practice day in New York. pic.twitter.com/26D16jhzjp
— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) November 22, 2022
Superficially, though, Skinner has been much more elite than his counterpart.
Skinner’s posted a 2.78 goals-against average and .921 save percentage in 10 games played. Campbell, who has also logged 10 games, has a 4.27 goals-against average and .873 save percentage.
The spread between the two gets worse when looking at advanced analytics between the netminding duo.
According to Moneypuck, Campbell’s goals saved above expected is especially horrid, slotting at -6.7. Only Thatcher Demko, at -9.1, is worse amongst goalies with at least 10 appearances, and Skinner, by comparison, has a 1.7 mark.
Not surprisingly, Skinner has made four straight starts while Campbell has ironed out his game in practice.
“It’s almost just taking a step back and just kind of taking a breath and going out and just working on the game, stopping pucks in practice, just tightening up some details,” Campbell told media Tuesday.
āIāve been through this pretty much every year since Iāve played hockey. Last year after the all-star break, there was a lot longer stretch, actually. But Iāve never really started this poorly before. I take things personally all the time and expect to play a certain way. So to play the way I have out of the gate isnāt ideal, but I know I have a lot of great hockey left and I canāt wait to show everybody.ā
"Just having some fun & stopping a lot of rubber."
After taking a puck to the face while on the bench last night, Jack Campbell provides an update & shares what his best hockey looks like. pic.twitter.com/huRWGXjksH
— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) November 22, 2022
Campbell’s got some work to do, though.
Skinner’s .914 save percentage on medium-danger shots, and .750 rating on high-danger shot attempts significantly trumps Campbell’s .870 and especially horrid .525 marks in each category, respectively.
Campbell has actually faced 12 fewer high-danger chances against, too, meaning the Oilers are giving up significantly more quality chances with Skinner between the pipes. He’s only allowed seven goals on 67 high-danger chances in 471:07 minutes at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. Campbell, in 422:40 of action, has allowed 13 goals on 55 attempts.
The numbers, by any metric, swing heavily in Skinner’s favour.
As should the declaration that the 24-year-old is Edmonton’s starter moving forward.
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