Edmonton Oilers have chance to get offer sheet revenge against St. Louis Blues
The Edmonton Oilers have an opportunity to exact revenge against the St. Louis Blues’ offer sheet fiasco from last summer.
Edmonton lost two promising young players in Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg last offseason, thanks to the Blues. In an unprecedented move, St. Louis targeted two offer sheets at the Oilers players, to which both agreed. Edmonton anguished over matching the offers, but ultimately decided to let them walk.
Both players found new levels with the Blues, while the Oilers struggled to find adequate replacements, despite making another run to the Stanley Cup Final. Now, the Oilers have a chance to leverage an offer sheet of their own toward a young St. Louis player.
Goaltender Joel Hofer is an RFA this summer, and the Blues are reportedly intent on signing him to an extension. With the Oilers desperate to add a new goalie this summer, they could extend an offer sheet toward the 24-year-old.
Let’s dive into the logistics of what that could look like…
Who is Joel Hofer?
Hofer was drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 NHL draft by the Blues and has slowly worked his way up to being the prospective goalie of the future in St. Louis.
The Winnipeg native made his NHL debut back in the 2021-22 season, but has only been a full-time member of the team for the past two seasons. Hofer has been sharing the net with Jordan Binnington, and the results have been pretty good.
In his first full season, Hofer posted a 15-12-1 record and .914 SV% in 30 games, as well as an impressive +10.3 GSAx. This past year, he carried a 16-8-3 record with a .904 SV% and a -4.3 GSAx.
That’s a bit of a drop-off, but the Blues in general had a worse season, barely squeaking into the playoffs. Hofer has shown that he can be a great goalie at the NHL level, and he is young enough that he could absolutely develop into a reliable starting goalie on a good team like Edmonton.
A goaltending tandem of Hofer/Skinner could have the potential to be very potent, and it may not break the bank for the Oilers.
What can the Oilers afford to offer?
The Oilers can’t write Hofer a blank cheque on an offer sheet.
Despite the salary cap rising considerably for the first time in years, Edmonton still does not have a ton of wiggle room. They have two monster extensions in the works for Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard, as well as multiple role players like Trent Frederic and Connor Brown, who will most likely be back next season.
There is also the problem of having the required compensation to give back to the Blues if Edmonton successfully poaches Hofer with an offer sheet. The Oilers don’t have a ton of draft capital on the account of being a Stanley Cup contender for the past several seasons.
They have just three picks in the upcoming 2025 NHL draft and do not have their 2026 first-rounder. Unless they can re-acquire that 2026 first-rounder from the San Jose Sharks, that rules out an offer sheet above $4,680,077 as that would require a first and third-round pick to go back to the Blues.
That shouldn’t be a major issue, as that would still allow Edmonton to give Hofer a considerable raise from his current cap hit of $775,000. It’s not a guarantee he would accept, but it should at least entice him a tiny bit if term is added.
Will the Blues match an offer?
The biggest issue in a potential Oilers offer sheet to Hofer is that St. Louis would most likely opt to match it.
While it may be more than they want to sign the young goaltender, the Blues don’t have many big contracts to sign this summer outside of Hofer. They could easily find room to open up the required $4.6 million needed to match an offer sheet from Edmonton.
However, this could open up another possibility for the Oilers. If the Blues are committing that much to Hofer, it means that they are probably ready to hand him the keys to be the starting goalie — but where would that leave Binnington?
Team Canada’s starting goaltender at the 4 Nations Face-Off still has two years remaining on a contract that carries a $6 million cap hit. Will the Blues be comfortable tying up two goalies at over a combined $10 million, or will they try to move on from Binnington?
If it’s the latter, the Oilers would be one of the first teams calling, though a trade may be a bit more difficult considering the strained relationship a Hofer offer sheet would create.
An offer sheet would potentially push the Blues into either giving up a young goaltender or forcing them to consider moving their other star-calibre netminder. If you’re the Oilers, you’ll take either one of those outcomes.