Edmonton Oilers dominating at five-on-five in this series and the numbers prove it
Are the Edmonton Oilers five-on-five merchants?
Connor McDavid’s Oilers have gained a bit of an unfair reputation over the years as being a team that relies too much on the power play to score goals. However, that couldn’t be further from the truth in their first-round series against the LA Kings.
The Oilers have scored 21 goals in this series, 11 of which have been at five-on-five. That is tied with the Kings so far. Edmonton has scored just four power-play goals through the first five games of the series.
It’s a positive sign to see the Oilers scoring more at even-strength, but that is far from the most impressive part of their play. As we delve deeper into advanced analytics, the Oilers are having themselves a much more dominant series than it may seem on the surface.
Before we get into the nitty gritty of the numbers, it must be recognized that the bulk of LA’s offence has been generated through the power play. Unlike the Oilers, the Kings have relied heavily on the man-advantage to give them that early 2-0 series lead. While Edmonton sits at just four power-play goals, the Kings have managed to score eight goals through five games.
Five of those eight PP goals came in the first two games of the series. Since then, Edmonton has taken over both facets of the game, especially at even-strength.
According to MoneyPuck, the Oilers have an expected-goals-for percentage (xGF per cent) of 62.16 at five-on-five, which leads all NHL playoff teams so far. The Kings, on the other hand, are dead last among playoff teams with an xGF per cent of 37.84. This signifies that Edmonton is not only controlling the bulk of play at five-on-five, but are dominating the Kings in that regard as well.
When it comes to expected goals-for (xGF), the Oilers are once again sitting atop the NHL’s playoff table at 14.31. This means that while Edmonton only has 11 five-on-five goals in the series, the quality of chances generated means they theoretically should have at least 14. Darcy Kuemper’s stellar play in the LA net has caused the Oilers to score below these expectations.
Conversely, the Kings sit with a xGF of just 8.71, meaning their 11 even-strength goals are more than they should have. This is likely due to Edmonton’s subpar goaltending early in the series.
When you break those numbers down, that leaves a wide gap of 5.6 expected goals between the Oilers and Kings. That is the largest differential of all the first-round matchups.
On the surface, the Oilers coming back to take a 3-2 series lead may seem surprising, but the analytics are suggesting that Edmonton has been the much better team at five-on-five throughout this series.
It was goaltending troubles and a leaky penalty kill that skewed things early on.