The January forecast for Alberta is out and lots of snow is on the way
If you enjoy a winter full of snow in Alberta, the January forecast is hinting at plenty more on the way soon.
While we recently saw some dazzling sights of rime ice covering parts of Alberta earlier this week, a warmup is on its way before we see a dive in temperatures as we roll through the month.
Daily Hive chatted with Alyssa Pederson, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), on how January is looking for Alberta.
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When it comes to temperature, it’s shaping up to be about normal for January; however, Pederson added that there isn’t too much certainty with temperature at the moment.
A blast of warmer temperatures is on the way as we hit this weekend and go into next week, which many Albertans will likely be thankful for after a cold Christmas break for much of the province.
Looking at precipitation, the indication for January is above normal, with models being pretty consistent across a lot of the different longer-term guidance.
“January is looking wetter than normal, so it’s still the same kind of trend that we had in December. December was colder than normal and wetter than normal. In January, the temperatures, we’re not as certain about… Usually, we have more certainty with that, but we’re getting a pretty, pretty strong signal of above normal for precipitation again,” Pederson said.
That pattern is thanks to the weak La Niña weather phenomenon that we and Western Canada are experiencing, which typically brings about above-normal precipitation and colder-than-normal temperatures.
What parts of Alberta may see more snow than others in January?
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Where above-normal precipitation is most likely this month is the Alberta Rockies, Peace Country, like Grande Prairie and Peace River, east into Slave Lake, and even the Edmonton region.
It’s much of the same spots that have seen plenty of snowfall this winter, with Pederson mentioning that some of the forested areas in northwestern Alberta have already hit snowfall totals over 300 per cent of what they usually receive.
The signal for above-normal precipitation takes a dip the further south you go, with Calgary and southern Alberta most likely set to see more wind and Chinook events this January over heavy snowfall events.
When could parts of Alberta see their next big dump of snow?
Pederson said that the current indications show a warmup is on the way this weekend into next week, and that is set to last maybe a week, thanks to a blocking pattern with a big low off the coast of B.C. and a big upper ridge just being stagnant over Alberta.
That setup is looking to last until much of next week, eventually breaking down late next week, allowing for a rush of cooler temperatures to flow in. When that transition happens, that’s when meteorologists expect volatility, where there’s maybe daily snow for a couple of days or a big dump all at once.
As for what Albertans should expect and prepare for in January, Pederson stressed that with the heavier snowfall in the cards for some areas, especially if it happens every day or consistently, shovelling can actually be pretty dangerous to health.
“If it does end up piling up, and then you’re shovelling a lot of snow at once, that can actually become a cardiac risk for people. So it’s always important to keep people reminded that, you know, snow is heavy, and if there is that requirement to try and make sure to stay on top of it, because it can become a health risk if you try and tackle, say, 20 centimetres in one go.”
Travel may also be an issue with plenty of snow, with road conditions that can quickly deteriorate, something that was seen last month.
Looking at the forecast for Alberta’s two major cities, the rise in temperatures is sure on the horizon, with Monday, Jan. 12, looking like the peak of the heat for both cities over the next seven days.
Edmonton forecast
Environment and Climate Change Canada
According to ECCC, the average high for Edmonton around this time of year is -8°C, while the average low is -16°C.
Calgary forecast
Environment and Climate Change Canada
According to ECCC, the average high for Calgary around this time of year is -3°C, while the average low is -15°C.