How Nugent-Hopkins' return could impact Edmonton Oilers forward lines
The Edmonton Oilers could look very different on Thursday night.
Head coach Mike Babcock confirmed after Tuesday’s 4-3 OT victory over the Minnesota Wild that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will make his season debut with the Oilers against the Carolina Hurricanes this week.
The veteran forward has missed the first nine games of the season with an undisclosed injury, but he’ll likely step into the Oilers’ top six on Thursday; it remains to be seen exactly where he will slot in and how it will affect the roster as a whole.
Edmonton has managed an impressive 7-1-1 start in RNH’s absence, but has struggled to generate on-ice momentum outside of a red-hot top line. The Oilers’ centre depth, in particular, has been hit hard, with Jason Dickinson in and out of the lineup due to injuries and Babcock’s insistence on keeping Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line.
Getting Nugent-Hopkins back should help the Oilers become a deeper team, but how exactly could it shake up the roster? Let’s take a look at what Edmonton’s forward lineup could look like with his return…
First line
Vasily Podkolzin – Connor McDavid – Leon Draisaitl
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
It’s as simple as that for the Oilers’ top line: a trio that has been one of the league’s best lines to start the season. They are a big reason why Edmonton has had so much early success, and with reinforcements coming to the rest of the roster, there is no reason to tinker with this part of the lineup.
Connor McDavid is pacing for the greatest regular season in NHL history, Leon Draisaitl is among the league leaders in goals, and Vasily Podkolzin may be the league’s biggest breakout player so far.
Let them keep doing their thing.
Second line
Isaac Howard – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Zach Hyman
This is where much of the intrigue will lie with Nugent-Hopkins’ return.
It seems like a foregone conclusion that he will slot in as the second-line centre, with the top line likely staying intact. Zach Hyman is the obvious option on the right wing, but the real question is who will complete that trifecta.
Kasperi Kapanen seems to have impressed the coaching staff and could very well be an option for Babcock to round out the top-six. However, it might make more sense to give Isaac Howard a run of games there, who is off to a very quiet start to the season.
The 22-year-old has just two assists in nine games, but he has dangerous offensive tools, including a heavy shot and a knack for finding open ice. The issue is that he hasn’t been put in a position to use either, playing on the team’s fourth line on most nights.
Surrounding him with offensive players could unlock production, as he could act as the trigger-man for that trio and finally play in a spot that fits his strengths.
Babcock initially ran this line in training camp, but didn’t get the chance to try it out during the regular season. This will be his best shot at seeing if it can work.
Third line
Trent Frederic – Colton Dach – Kasperi Kapanen
Edmonton has been experimenting with Colton Dach as their second-line centre lately, so it makes sense to bump him down to the 3C spot with RNH returning. Of course, this would only be temporary until Dickinson can return.
Dach will bring a lot of physicality to this line, which could be accentuated by adding Trent Frederic onto his left wing. Kapanen would make sense rounding out this trio, as he’s been paired with Dach over the past couple of games and would add a bit of speed to the line.
This would definitely lean toward a traditional shutdown third line with a lot of physically imposing players, while leaving some room for offence. The underlying analytics haven’t been great for these three, but injuries forced them into a bigger role than expected to start the year.
We’ll see if playing down the lineup helps them rebound.
Fourth line
Alex Formenton – Owen Michaels – Mathieu Joseph
There isn’t much to be said about the prospective Oilers’ fourth line.
Babcock seems to have found a trio he likes in Alex Formenton, Owen Michaels, and Mathieu Joseph, as they’ve spent most of the season together. It’s not hard to see why; they have a bit of everything.
Michaels has proven great in the dot, Formenton brings speed, and Joseph has been a great utility man. All three have also generated offence at times, which you can’t say about many previous Oilers fourth lines. They have had their moments defensively, for sure, but have found a way to more than survive.
It may not be as sexy as the top line, but the same logic applies. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.