How Hållander trade will affect Edmonton Oilers forward lines
The Edmonton Oilers could shake up the lines this weekend.
It’s been a good start for the Oilers, who find themselves at 3-0-1 through the first four games of the season. That is despite injuries decimating the forward group, with all of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Matt Savoie sidelined.
It’s been a show largely dominated by Edmonton’s superstars, as Connor McDavid is leading the league in points, Evan Bouchard is the NHL’s leading goalscorer, and Leon Draisaitl is continuing to score at a high rate as well.
It’s impressive that the Oilers are doing so well considering how shallow the forward depth has been. Injuries have basically eliminated Edmonton from having their usual second line, meaning that depth players have been thrust into more prominent roles while the team waits to get healthy.
While the Oilers have been successful, the on-ice results show that the forward group is actually struggling quite a bit at five-on-five when the top line isn’t doing all the work. According to Natural Stat Trick, every forward outside of McDavid, Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin, and Kasperi Kapanen has an expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) below 50.
GM Stan Bowman seems to understand the need to shake up the forward depth, as he made a deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday to acquire Filip Hållander in exchange for defenceman Spencer Statsney.
The 26-year-old Swedish forward is set to join the Oilers for practice on Friday and will be available against the San Jose Sharks on Saturday afternoon. This means that Babcock will have the opportunity to tweak lines two through four in an attempt to give the top line a bit of a reprieve.
How could those lines look? Let’s delve into things a bit deeper.
Top six remains intact
It feels highly unlikely that Babcock will touch the top line of Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl at this point.
That trio has been extremely dominant early in the season and has basically been tilting the ice every time they jump over the boards. You can’t mess with something that has been as red-hot as this Oilers’ top line, so there should be no expectation that the McDrai duo will be split up onto separate lines anytime soon.
Edmonton’s temporary second line consisted of Trent Frederic, Jason Dickinson, and Kasperi Kapanen on Wednesday night against the Anaheim Ducks. It was the first time we saw this trio together as Dickinson returned from injury to make his season debut.
They did not fare well in the 5:28 of five-on-five time they played together, getting outchanced by a margin of 10-5 and posting a disappointing 37.96 xGF%. It was a bit ugly for that line in their first outing, but it feels unlikely that they will be split up.
Eventually, this line will become Edmonton’s permanent third line once the team gets healthy. As such, they will likely remain together until the team can get healthy enough to eventually play them in the proper spot. It’s the only other fully NHL line that the Oilers have to offer outside the top line.
Finding Hållander’s spot
This means that the changes brought about by the Hållander trade are much more likely to affect Edmonton’s bottom-six in the short term.
That shouldn’t be too surprising, considering his limited NHL experience, but where exactly should he slot into the lineup? The Oilers’ third line this season has seen Alex Formenton, Owen Michaels, and Mathieu Joseph regularly play together, with the idea that they’d eventually slot down to the fourth line once players return.
Michaels and Joseph have looked good in their roles, but Formenton has been a bit of a ghost early on in the season. Could the Oilers look to demote the controversial forward and try Hållander in that spot for a few games? After all, the 26-year-old Swede has had an impactful start to the season with the Penguins, notching a goal and three points in two games, and he could bring some offensive pop to this trio.
If Babcock wants to give Formenton a little more runway, then the only spot left for the Oilers’ newest addition would be on a makeshift fourth line. Right now that bottom line consists of Isaac Howard, Josh Samanski, and Max Jones.
While Hällander had played centre before, his experience at the NHL level is minimal. That makes him unlikely to edge out Samanski, and the Oilers seem intent on giving Howard a longer NHL leash this year.
That leaves Jones as the odd-man out, who hasn’t exactly done much to justify staying in the NHL lineup. It would also help ease Hällander into Edmonton’s lineup and perhaps help bring a spark of offence to a line that has been radio silent so far in that regard.
It will then be up to Hällander himself to stay on the NHL roster when players start returning from injury.