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Stanley Cup now has nearly 50-50 shot of returning to Canada thanks to Oilers and Leafs

Adam Laskaris
Adam Laskaris
|
May 9 2025, 2:42 pm
Stanley Cup now has nearly 50-50 shot of returning to Canada thanks to Oilers and Leafs
Perry Nelson/Imagn Images

One of the best things about the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the hope that maybe, just maybe, this will be the year that your team wins it all.

For Canadian hockey fans, it’s been several generations since they’ve been able to celebrate that feeling, with the Montreal Canadiens being the last team up north to win the Stanley Cup in 1993.

But with three Canadian teams left in this year’s playoffs, and two of them leading their series 2-0, the numbers aren’t looking too bad that one of them could bring it home.

The Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs, each of the last two Stanley Cup Champions, have claimed 2-0 series leads in their second-round matchups against the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets are the lone Canadian team trailing in their series, down 1-0 to the Dallas Stars, though they did win the Presidents’ Trophy for the best regular season record.

Canadian teams currently have a 47.80 per cent shot at winning it all this year via MoneyPuck’s model, with the Leafs and Oilers occupying first and third slots at 22.1 per cent and 16.1 per cent, respectively. The Jets, meanwhile, have the fifth-best odds per MoneyPuck, at 9.6 per cent.

The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, known for his NHL projections, is putting out pretty similar numbers to MoneyPuck. Canada’s Stanley Cup chances are at about 48 per cent, with the Leafs at 20 per cent, Oilers at 19 per cent and Jets at 9 per cent.

FanDuel Sportsbook, meanwhile, is liking the Oilers the most out of any team, period, giving them +300 odds, or an implied 25 per cent shot at winning the Stanley Cup. Combined with the Leafs and the Jets, that’s a 47.6 per cent shot at a Canadian team bringing it home.

Here’s what FanDuel’s Stanley Cup odds look like as of Friday morning:

  • Edmonton Oilers, +300, 25 per cent
  • Dallas Stars, +330, 23.3 per cent
  • Carolina Hurricanes, +450, 18.2 per cent
  • Toronto Maple Leafs, +550, 16.7 per cent
  • Florida Panthers, +750, 11.8 per cent
  • Washington Capitals, +1200, 7.7 per cent
  • Winnipeg Jets, +1600, 5.9 per cent
  • Vegas Golden Knights, +1700, 5.6 per cent

While the odds will surely look different even after just two more games today featuring the Jets and Leafs, it’s the best a trio of Canadian teams have looked this deep into the playoffs in quite some time.

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