Canadian condo market rebound possible in late 2026 and 2027 | Daily Hive

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Canada’s strata condominium ownership housing market remains under pressure heading into the end of 2025, but a multi-year absorption of surplus inventory is setting the stage for healthier conditions in the second half of 2026 and into 2027, according to a new report today from Re/Max Canada.

In major urban centres, including Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Toronto, weaker buyer confidence, high inventory levels, and economic uncertainty have slowed sales in 2025 — even as prices have softened and interest rates have edged lower.

“Affordability and cost-of-living pressures weighed heavily on homebuyers nationwide,” said Don Kottick, president of Re/Max Canada, noting that recent policy interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada have not been enough to overcome concerns about job security and the broader economy.

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Across all four cities, Re/Max characterizes 2026 as a transition year rather than a turnaround. While inventory remains elevated and buyers cautious, the firm expects improving economic stability, further interest rate relief, and continued absorption of supply to gradually restore balance.

Although there is currently a pronounced slowdown, Kottick notes that one in every two homes sold in Greater Vancouver (Greater Vancouver Realtors jurisdiction) and one in every three homes sold in Greater Toronto (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board jurisdiction) is still a condominium.

“Despite the pullback in recent years, condominiums remain a vital component of Canada’s current and future housing stock. It’s inevitable that, given the supply of land and population growth, a rebound will materialize, even if it takes some time. The fact remains that, in many urban areas, the only way to build is up and the only affordable entry-point to ownership is a condo,” said Kottick.

“We anticipate 2026 will be a year of transition, as inventory is slowly absorbed, giving way to healthier conditions in 2027, alongside broader economic recovery. Economic stability, after all, is the bellwether of consumer confidence with the latter the essential catalyst that drives recovery.”

Possibility of a condo supply shortage in a few years in Greater Vancouver

In Greater Vancouver, condominium sales fell 11 per cent year-over-year for the period between January and October 2025, as elevated inventory and slower demand continued to define the market. Average prices declined nearly six per cent to $765,000, with widespread softening across most Metro Vancouver areas.

While interest rate relief has arrived, Re/Max says buyers remain hesitant, waiting for clearer signs of economic stability. Investors, once a major force in the market, are largely staying on the sidelines, particularly as financing challenges and construction costs weigh on new projects.

Sub-areas such as Squamish and Whistler/Pemberton saw rising values, and well-financed first-time buyers and upsizers have begun to take advantage of improved selection and narrower price gaps between condominiums and townhomes.

Re/Max expects Vancouver’s condominium market to remain in transition through much of 2026, with conditions improving gradually as excess supply is absorbed.

Interestingly, the company asserts unique variables are in play in the Metro Vancouver market due to the Government of British Columbia’s housing legislation, with municipal governments now required to approve small-scale, multi-unit housing on single-family lots, including multiplexes, laneway homes, and coach homes. It is suggested that some of the demand that would have otherwise gone to condominiums could be redirected to the emergence of the small-scale, multi-unit housing typology.

As well, Re/Max suggests the possibility of a condominium supply shortage in a few years when the cycle changes and demand returns, with developers currently increasingly shifting to secured purpose-built rental housing projects and pausing or cancelling their condominium projects.

Strength in Calgary and Edmonton

Calgary recorded the steepest decline in condominium sales among the country’s major markets, with transactions down 28.5 per cent year to date. Despite the slowdown, average condominium prices held relatively steady, edging up slightly to about $348,500.

Rising inventory, a pullback in migration, and an investor retreat have all contributed to softer demand. At the same time, a surge in secured purpose-built rental housing construction has increased competition for buyers, encouraging many to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Even so, Re/Max points to underlying economic strength in Alberta as a key positive. Strong GDP growth, a resilient energy sector, and improving employment prospects are expected to support renewed condominium demand in 2026, once existing inventory is absorbed.

Edmonton stands out as one of the more balanced condominium markets in the country. Sales slipped six per cent this year, but average prices climbed more than six per cent to roughly $213,000, reflecting continued demand driven by affordability and investor interest.

Unlike other major cities, Edmonton has attracted capital — particularly from Ontario-based investors — targeting smaller apartment buildings and lower-priced units. First-time buyers have also remained active, supported by a wider range of housing options and comparatively low entry costs.

Re/Max expects Edmonton to be among the first major markets to recover, aided by steady population growth, improving labour market conditions and a diversified local economy heading into 2026.

Greater Toronto struggling with oversupply of condos

In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the condominium market continues to grapple with significant oversupply. Sales declined nearly 12 per cent year over year, while average prices fell just over five per cent to about $691,000.

Re/Max estimates the GTA is still working through close to two years of inventory, with meaningful improvement unlikely before mid-2026. Economic headwinds — including elevated unemployment, high living costs, and upcoming mortgage renewals — are expected to keep buyer activity subdued in the short term.

That said, select neighbourhoods within the city of Toronto posted modest gains, and the gap between new and resale condominium prices has narrowed significantly. First-time buyers are expected to lead the eventual recovery, particularly in the $400,000 to $600,000 unit price range.

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