Analytics paint Edmonton Oilers as one of the unluckiest teams in NHL
The Edmonton Oilers might be one of the unluckiest teams through the first month of the NHL season, according to analytics.
It’s been another rocky start to the season for the Oilers, as they find themselves hovering just above .500 with a 6-5-3 record through the 14 games of the season. The offence has looked stale, the defence has been leaky at times, and the goaltending has once again become a talking point.
There doesn’t appear to be a lot going right with the Oilers, which is strange considering the amount of talent that the roster boasts. As it turns out, it may just be rotten luck that is bogging Edmonton down.
As of Nov. 4, the Oilers are fourth-last in the entire league with a PDO of 97.15, according to MoneyPuck, with only the Minnesota Wild, Detroit Red Wings, and St. Louis Blues ranking below them. That’s a sign that the best is yet to come from this Edmonton squad.
But what does this actually mean? Why does the Oilers’ PDO figure signify bad luck? Let’s take a closer look at things…
What is PDO?
On the surface, PDO might sound like one of those complicated, advanced analytics figures that have taken over professional sports, but it really isn’t.
In plain terms, PDO is calculated by adding together both a team’s save percentage (percentage of shots-against saved) along the team’s shot percentage (percentage of shots that result in goals-for), which is then multiplied by 100.
A lower PDO indicates that the team is having trouble getting saves and scoring goals, while a high PDO shows the inverse. The theory behind this stat is that just about every team will average out to around 100, which gives a rough projection of how a team is performing.
If a team is performing above a PDO of 100, there is reason to believe that they are getting a bit lucky and should expect to regress down to the average at some point. If the PDO is below 100, then there is some expectation that the team is unlucky and should start to regress up to the average.
There are obviously some exceptions to that rule, but teams rarely fall on the extremes of either side.
Why is this a good sign for Oilers?
It’s not the best news in the world that the Oilers are near the bottom of the league in PDO, but it does suggest that they have experienced some bad luck.
With a PDO of 97.15, the expectation is that the team should regress up to the league average at some point. This means that they are likely getting saves and scoring at a rate that is unlikely to keep up for an entire season.
It would be much more concerning if the Oilers had a high PDO and were still losing games, because the belief in that situation is that they would get even worse.
Now, PDO is far from an end-all, be-all kind of statistic. The Oilers aren’t destined to suddenly be great again simply because there is an expectation of regression back up to the league average. The work on actually getting better will be on the players and coaching staff.
In most instances, a team can’t wholly control their PDO as it is largely viewed as a measure of luck. The best way to get luck is to work for it, a cliche that rings true more often than not.