Analytics site favours Oilers way more than Flames in playoff odds
A popular analytics website is giving the Edmonton Oilers much better odds at making the playoffs than the Calgary Flames, despite the two teams being close to each other in the standings.
MoneyPuck currently gives the 17-18-5 Flames just a 19.2% chance at making the playoffs, which pales in comparison to the 87.1% chance that they give the 20-15-1 Oilers. This is despite the Flames being just two points behind Edmonton for the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference.
MoneyPuck.com
This is a drastic difference of 67.9% between the two Alberta teams which, on the surface, does seem a bit extreme. However, a closer look into how both teams are performing of late as well as the schedule ahead gives some insight on why that might be.
The Oilers have a significantly easier schedule than the Flames down the stretch according to Tankathon.com, with much more matchups against teams in the lower half of the NHL standings. The Flames don’t have an awfully hard schedule, but it isn’t quite as favourable as Edmonton’s.
There is also the fact that the Oilers have some of the best underlying stats of any team in the NHL this season. Despite not being at the top of the league standings quite yet, the Oilers rank first in five-on-five expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) at 58.14% which is much higher than the 18th-ranked Flames, who have a five-on-five xGF% of 49.95%.
There is also the fact that the Oilers just simply have more productive players than the Flames this season. As it stands right now, Edmonton has five players in the lineup who have already scored 30 or more points this season — McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Calgary only has two players who have done the same, with both Blake Coleman and Nazem Kadri each having exactly 30 points.
Lastly, the Flames and Oilers are two teams that have been going in opposite directions of late. Edmonton just recently rattled off its seventh straight victory on Saturday night and has won 11 of their last 14 games. Calgary, on the other hand, has only won six of their last 14 games and is kind of just towing the line.
There is still time for the Flames to improve their chances with 42 more games left on the schedule. While a 19.2% chance to make the playoffs isn’t great, it’s a lot better than zero.
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