Home prices in Canada just broke another record, but in a good way

Home prices in Canada just broke another record — in a good way this time

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Aggregate home prices across Canada saw a single-digit year-over decline in the fourth quarter of last year, breaking a record.

According to a new report from Royal LePage, such a year-over-year dip has not been seen in more than a decade.

Prices went down 2.8% in Q4 of 2022, yet prices remain above pre-pandemic levels. Compared to Q4s of 2020 and 2019, the current home prices have appreciated 13.8% and 17.2% respectively.

Royal LePage released its House Price Survey on Friday. As per their expert observations, the current average aggregate home price is $757,100. “On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 2.3%. This is the third consecutive quarterly decline, and the smallest decrease so far,” the report notes.

The Bank of Canada raised its interest rate seven times last year, with the latest update being in December (4.25%). So despite falling home prices, Canadian homeowners and aspiring homeowners may have a tougher time, especially if they have a variable rate mortgage.

Keeping all that in mind, here’s what Q4 of 2022 looked like across the country, and what we can expect in 2023.

British Columbia

Aggregate home prices decreased in the Greater Vancouver area by 3.5% YOY to $1,208,900 in Q4. This was also the third consecutive quarterly decline recorded.

Single-family detached home prices plummeted by 3.7% YOY to $1,643,900, while condo prices went up by 2% to $731,700, all in Q4 as well.

Randy Ryalls, general manager at Royal LePage Sterling Realty, says that while many buyers are still waiting for a price floor to reveal itself, transactions are being completed, with some pockets of the region “more active than others.”

“With inventory still very tight, prices have not dropped drastically. I believe a large part of the decline is already behind us,” he added.

The aggregate price of a home in the city of Vancouver dipped by 2.1% YOY to $1,345,600, with single-family detached homes getting cheaper by 4% ($2,397,800) and condos getting cheaper by 0.5% ($784,400).

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Ontario

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area dipped 4.6% YOY to $1,068,500 in last year’s Q4. This was the third consecutive quarterly decline.

Single-family detached homes saw a 6.7% YOY decrease and averaged to $1,325,900 in Q4. Condo prices, on the other hand, increased 2.7% to $683,100.

Royal LePage Chief Operating Officer Karen Yolevski said this is the first time the GTA real estate market has shown a return to “normal” seasonal trends.

“Rising interest rates have poured cold water on housing demand in the region, compared to most of 2020 and all of 2021, which were extremely active and recorded exorbitant price gains,” she added.

Aggregate home prices in the city of Toronto went down 4.5% YOY to $1,086,700 in the same period as well. Single-family detached homes saw a 4% decrease and condominium prices also went down by 4.2% to $681,500.

“Once interest rates stabilize, I believe many buyer hopefuls who have been sitting on the sidelines will return to the market,” said Yolevski.

Out in Ottawa, aggregate home prices decreased by 2.7% to $719,900 — single family homes went down by 5.7% to $826,300, and condos went down by a whopping 8.1% to $383,700 in the fourth quarter.

“Although many buyers have chosen to put their purchase plans on hold while they wait to see what interest rates do next, we know that there is a lot of pent-up demand waiting in the wings, especially in the first-time buyer segment,” noted Jason Ralph, broker of record, Royal LePage Team Realty. “I expect that demand will return once interest rates stabilize.”

Quebec

In Q4 of 2022, aggregate homes in the Greater Montreal Area soared by 2.2% to $544,300 (YOY). This was still the second decrease that year in terms of quarterly prices.

Single-family detached prices increased by 1% YOY to $601,500 and condo prices also went up 3.8% to $445,100 in Q4.

But in downtown Montreal, the aggregate prices decreased 3.4% YOY to $646,600 in Q4, with single-family detached homes going down in price by 5.9% ($1,036,500) and condo prices going up by 3.4% ($527,100).

“In Greater Montreal, we should see price stabilization followed by modest to moderate growth once interest rates start to come back down, possibly at the end of 2023 or in the first half of 2024,” noted Dominic St-Pierre, VP and general manager of Royal LePage for Quebec.

Alberta

Aggregate home prices soared in Calgary 3.9% YOY to $599,100 in 2022’s fourth quarter — single-family detached homes were up by 5.5% ($686,500) and condos were up by 4% ($233,700).

Corinne Lyall, broker and owner at Royal LePage Benchmark, believes that Calgary’s healthy job market and strong economy are a “major draw” for young people from across the country. “As a result, home prices in Calgary have proven more resilient than in other major cities, which have recorded price declines since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates,” she said.

Edmonton, on the other hand, saw a minor dip in aggregate prices (0.3% to $427,100).

Condos became 0.3% more expensive with an average price of $194,100 and single-family detached home prices decreased 1.1% ($464,500).

Tom Shearer, broker and owner at Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate, expected the trend of home prices remaining stable in Edmonton to continue throughout the first part of 2023.

“Inventory in popular neighbourhoods remains low, and new construction has slowed with the increased cost of materials and labour,” said Shearer. “I expect tighter market conditions in the spring and summer when activity levels pick up again.”

For more information about 2022 Q4 trends in other Canadian regions, check out Royal LePage’s full report here.