What the next three months of winter weather may look like in Alberta
While we know how January is looking to shake out for Alberta, the next three months of winter weather may have some of us reaching for the snow shovel.
Daily Hive chatted with Alyssa Pederson, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), on how the next few months of winter weather are shaping up for Alberta.
Much like how January is looking for the temperature in parts of Alberta, the forecast from now into March is hinting at a strong probability of below-normal temperatures for northern Alberta, while southern Alberta is seeing a slight chance of being above-normal.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
“If we look at the temperature for February, we are getting that colder signal, like we are in January,” Pederson said, adding that the certainty isn’t super high due to a lot of systems that can easily influence the weather patterns.
“As we move closer towards March, especially near the start of the spring season in Alberta, it can be very volatile. When we have a lot of volatility, the confidence in that seasonal forecast isn’t going to be that great.”
Environment and Climate Change Canada
The forecast probability of precipitation for Alberta from now through March is also hinting at a wet one, with the majority of the province set to see a good chance of being above-normal.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
The forecast and weather patterns for the next few months are thanks to the weak La Niña weather phenomenon that we and Western Canada are experiencing, which typically brings about above-normal precipitation and colder-than-normal temperatures.
Winter is officially set to end on Sunday, March 20; however, Albertans know the risk of heavy snow and cool temperatures can linger well past that official date.
The ECCC seasonal forecasts are based on a 20-member ensemble of predictions, 10 members from each of two coupled atmosphere-ocean-land physical climate models. The forecast probabilities are estimated by first computing the anomalies or departures from normal for each ensemble member and then applying the calibration procedure to these values.