The November forecast for Alberta calls for a cold start before it gets weird
Alberta is in for a chilly start to November, but temperatures will gradually warm up as the month goes on and the effects of a strong El Niño begin to kick in.
We spoke with Brian Proctor, a meteorologist at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), to get the lowdown on what we can expect in the month ahead.
“We’re seeing quite a bit of variability in our seasonal forecast at this point in time as the month of November evolves,” Proctor explained.
While the start of the month is looking below average, things should start to warm up by the second week of November, when temperatures are expected to return to around normal for much of the province.
“We’re hinting at maybe areas like Calgary up to Red Deer being above normal for the whole month, and the remainder of the province being pretty normal from a temperature point of view,” Proctor said.
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For Calgary, the average daily temperature in November is -1.7°C, while in Edmonton, it’s -3.5°C.
By the third week, warmer-than-normal temperatures could spread across more of southern Alberta. Proctor says that warming trend could become more noticeable in December, as El Niño’s influence grows.
ECCC
As for precipitation, much of the province is expected to remain relatively dry throughout November, though some areas could see more precipitation early in the month.
Areas northeast of Edmonton and along the foothills have a better chance of seeing above-normal precipitation during the first week of November. The far north, meanwhile, is expected to remain particularly dry.
But as the month progresses, the forecast points to increasingly dry conditions across the province.
ECCC
The strong El Niño is expected to play a bigger role in Alberta’s weather as winter progresses, but its most significant impacts aren’t necessarily expected to arrive in November.
“Really, what’s happening is El Niño and its impacts are coming towards us, but we have to really get further into the winter before we can really see the significant impacts.”