Canucks winger Garland has a Selke case, according to analytics
NHL awards season is in full swing, and several Vancouver Canucks are being mentioned as top candidates. Quinn Hughes is the leading candidate to win the Norris Trophy, Rick Tocchet is leading the Jack Adams discussion… and Conor Garland is getting support on social media for the Selke Trophy.
The Selke Trophy is awarded annually to the best defensive forward in the NHL. Although 5-foot-10 wingers are not often considered for the award, some reputable statisticians are mentioning Garland’s name.
Mathematician and popular hockey account @IneffectiveMath started the discussion earlier this week when he posted his hypothetical Selke ballot. Garland was fifth on his list.
My Selke top-five:
Jason Robertson
Noah Cates
Marcus Foligno
Kevin Fiala
Conor Garland— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 15, 2024
Today, @EvolvingWild, another popular hockey analytics account with tens of thousands of followers, posted their Selke ballot, which also featured the Canucks winger. There were three common players, including Garland, across the two ballots.
Selke:
J. Robertson
Foerster / Fiala / Reinhart / Garland
Iafallo / Hathaway / Drury / J. Staal / Barkov— EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) April 17, 2024
Garland has won over the hearts of many Canucks fans this season, but even his most devoted supporters might not’ve thought of him as a Selke candidate.
The argument essentially boils down to the fact that Garland is so good at keeping possession of the puck, winning 50/50 battles, and suppressing scoring chances against that he’s a dominant defensive force despite not being the traditional mould of a Selke Trophy candidate.
The Canucks only allow 24.71 shots against per 60 minutes when Garland is on the ice at five-on-five, the best mark of any regular skater on the team. They also control 56.06% of the shot attempts, a top-30 mark in the league for any forward with at least 800 five-on-five minutes.
As can be seen in the graph below, the Canucks allow far fewer expected goals than the league average when he’s on the ice. They also do a good job of suppressing scoring chances from dangerous areas of the ice.
start here pic.twitter.com/54lHgcMVZy
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 15, 2024
The strong expected results have translated into actual results, as the Canucks are outscoring opponents 54-29 when the winger is on the ice at five-on-five. That’s the fifth-best ratio of any NHL forward with at least 800 five-on-five minutes.
It’s unlikely that Garland will get any votes from the sports writers around the league who vote on this award. Traditionally, the Selke Trophy goes to a centre that kills penalties, neither descriptions that fit the undersized winger.
While he likely won’t be walking away with any major NHL awards, Garland is a crucial component of one of the league’s best teams. Starting next week, he’ll be battling for an honour much more important than the Selke Trophy — the Stanley Cup.
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