Blue Jays should bring back Chapman, here's how much it could cost
As the ongoing staring contest between super agent Scott Boras and MLB executives continues, The Boras Corporation unexpectedly blinked over the weekend. Boras’ client Cody Bellinger agreed to re-sign with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year deal.
That’s well below contract projections on terms and dollars, and with many free agents still on the market, Boras and company may need to eat a little more humble pie if the other players want to find a home on Opening Day.
One of those players is former Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman. Along with Cy Young winner Blake Snell, starting pitcher Jordon Montgomery, and designated hitter J.D. Martinez, they’re all on the outside looking in as spring training games continue.
Most clubs are busy plotting out the pieces they already have on their roster, but eventually, these Boras clients will sign on the dotted line. And in the Blue Jays’ case, it would benefit them to bring back the Gold Glove third baseman.
When Chapman came out with a 1.152 OPS and 20 extra-base hits in the first month of the 2023 season, he was setting himself up for an enormous payday in free agency. Even in a weak free agent class, Chapman was still one of the top-position players available.
And then the rest of the season happened. Chapman came crashing down to Earth, posting a .659 OPS for the rest of the 2023 season. Despite his elite defensive skills, he became a liability at the top of the Blue Jays lineup.
So how did we get from that point to potentially bringing Chapman back into the fold on the Blue Jays roster? Sometimes it’s about timing, sometimes it’s about availability, and sometimes people reconsider.
When Bellinger signed for significantly less than what most were expecting, all signs now point towards Chapman inking a similar bridge deal as well. Teams see red flags if he remains unsigned at this point, and if his asking price decreases, it means that one of those roadblocks has been removed.
From a roster construction standpoint, the Blue Jays appeared to have moved on from Chapman. Isiah Kiner-Falefa isn’t his replacement per se, but it looks like IKF will see the bulk of his playing time at third base. But he’s not an everyday third baseman.
That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays can’t re-sign Chapman on a one or two-year deal and not make things work on the roster. Chapman could return to his post at the hot corner and Kiner-Falefa can bounce around as the team’s super utility player.
What contract could Blue Jays offer Chapman?
I’d imagine it’s not the dollar figure that scared off the Blue Jays from re-signing Chapman, it’s the term. Four or five guaranteed years for a guy coming off the worst offensive season of his career is a colossal risk. But if we’re talking about a one or two-year deal, that’s a different story.
One year at $26 million or two years at $44 million for Chapman (with an opt-out clause after the first year) would be a fair offer from any suitor. Suddenly, there would be a lot of teams interested at that term and price point, but the Blue Jays have the wiggle room.
It boils down to this: the Blue Jays would be a better team today if they re-signed Chapman. They’d be running back the bulk of their lineup from last season (save for Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield), but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
At the very least, Chapman provides elite defence at third base, which benefits Blue Jays pitchers. He led the American League with 13 defensive runs saved and won the fourth Gold Glove Award of his career.
Chapman’s glove alone isn’t worth $26 million or more a season, but there are far worse ways to spend money, and the Blue Jays have had their fair share of bad contracts over the years. And there is especially no such thing as a bad one-year contract.
You’d also figure Chapman’s numbers should stabilize a bit from last year, coming off a career-low .755 OPS in 140 games played. He spent 43 games batting cleanup for the Blue Jays last year, a spot he really had no business being in. Due to a lack of options, Toronto had no choice but to run him out there for the first part of the season in the four spot.
But after the addition of Justin Turner, perhaps that takes a bit of pressure off of someone like Chapman to drive the bus on offence and he would provide some pop for the Blue Jays in the bottom third of the order.
During his 2023 campaign with the Blue Jays, Chapman posted a .908 OPS hitting sixth and a .813 OPS hitting seventh in the lineup. He seems to excel when he’s not under the gun to drive in the big boys like George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
After the season he had last year, it would be wise for Chapman to follow a similar path that Marcus Semien did a few seasons ago and sign a pillow contract to reestablish some value. In Semien’s case, it netted him a seven-year, $175 million deal from the Texas Rangers.
Even though it would be a high-AAV deal for a team like the Blue Jays, they can easily afford it and they could use the boost on defence and his bat would help lengthen out a lineup that’s still very top-heavy.
This offseason didn’t really play out the way most expected for the Blue Jays, and it wouldn’t be the sexiest signing, but Chapman on the Blue Jays in 2024 makes them better. And for a team looking to get over that playoff hump, sometimes, a little better is all it takes.
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