Analytics say Canucks don’t stand much of a chance against Oilers
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The Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks are set to open up their second-round playoff series against each other this week, and one high-profile analytical model shows a clear favourite.
Despite the Canucks sweeping the season series against the Oilers, a model developed by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn has Edmonton as the heavy favourite to defeat Vancouver and move on to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in three years.
Luszczyszyn has one of the most popular models in hockey right now, and it is currently giving the Oilers a steep 74% chance of beating the Canucks. This leaves Vancouver’s odds sitting at just 26%.
2024 NHL playoff preview: Canucks vs. Oilers
with @seangentille and @hayyyshayyyThe Oilers are heavy favourites against an overachieving Canucks team that doesn’t appear to have the starpower or depth to match their Alberta rivals.https://t.co/9IJ6p7mKkl pic.twitter.com/YykmIJpfBO
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) May 5, 2024
Luszczyszyn states that the Canucks lack the proper star power to line up against the likes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm, and Evan Bouchard, as well as Edmonton, having better depth down the lineup.
The most likely scenario, according to the model, is that the Oilers will eliminate the Canucks in six games. The Canucks have just a 2% chance of sweeping Edmonton, while the Oilers have a 15% chance of pulling off the sweep. The model gives an equal 15% chance that Edmonton will win the series in seven games.
You would also have to think that injuries to Vancouver goaltenders Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith also play a role in the lopsided odds. This has prompted quite the reaction from Canucks fans, who believe their team stacks up better against the Oilers than the model seems to think.
Not the star power but depth??? Cmon. Defense depth is far better and 3rd line is far far far better.
— Casey the M (@wrecker44) May 5, 2024
So a 4-0 regular series record
+14 Goal differential
Means nothing?— Hughes Sports Podcast (@HSP_Pod) May 5, 2024
Arturs Silovs just beat Juuse Saros. Bring on sketchy Skinner. Nurse Ceci aren’t top 4 dmen and Lindholm is gonna be a pain for the Oilers. Quinn Hughes will pose many problems for the Oilers too.
Oilers should be favoured but it won’t be shocking if the Canucks win.
— Pat Quinn Hughes (@slaythedragon14) May 5, 2024
It’s funny how Canucks led the league for 90% of the year. Had 6 players in all star game. And still having to prove they are a contender. I hope the Canucks prove everyone wrong yet again!
— Scott Beecroft (@ScottyBeecroft) May 5, 2024
Star power goes to Edmonton. Forward Depth? No. Edmonton is a one line team that relies on the PP. D depth? Edmonton has one D that would crack Vancouver’s lineup. Goalies? Vancouver’s #3 that nobody heard of a week ago >>> any Oil goalie since Ranford.
— Prince of Peons (@GodOfYouPeons) May 5, 2024
To put these odds into perspective, Luszczyszyn’s model gave the LA Kings a 29% chance of beating the Oilers and the Nashville Predators 37% chance of beating the Canucks in the first round. Now, according to this model, Vancouver has worse odds than either the Kings and Predators did.
While nothing is certain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there is no doubt that this will be a series that every hockey fan will want to tune into.
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