Toronto home sales expected to decline in 2018... but prices will still go up

Jan 31 2018, 2:47 am

Here comes another year of ups and downs in Toronto’s real estate market.

While residential sales are expected to decline, prices will climb in 2018, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB).

TREB released its annual Market Year in Review & Outlook Report on Tuesday, forecasting the upcoming eleven months of real estate.

Last year ended with an 18% decline in sales compared to 2016, but the average selling price was up by 12.7% to $822,681 in the GTA. In total, 92,394 homes were sold in the region.

Looking ahead, sales in 2018 are expected to be between 85,000 to 95,000, with year-over-year declines more pronounced in the first four months of the year. TREB is forecasting that sales will be up through the late spring and summer months.

Market Year in Review & Outlook Report / TREB

Meanwhile, the average selling price in 2018 is going to be between $800,000 and 850,000 for the GTA. This price is expected to be higher in the City of Toronto.

And expect condos to continue to be the hottest real estate in town.

“The pace of home price growth will not be uniform across market segments in 2018.  Expect tight market conditions for condominium apartments to underpin continued double-digit rates of price growth in this market segment,” states the 80-page report. “Conversely, the pace of growth for more expensive detached homes will be less brisk.”

Market Year in Review & Outlook Report / TREB

“Fundamental demand drivers promoting housing demand will remain in place in 2018, including immigration-driven population growth, job creation and low unemployment across a diversity of economic sectors,”said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis in a release.

“However, we must be cognizant of the fact that, in the short term, higher borrowing costs and the effects of federal and provincial policy decisions will act as a drag on demand for ownership housing.  It is also probable that provincial rent control legislation will stunt the supply of available rental units, resulting in a continuation of average rent growth well-above the rate of inflation.”

Which means, it’s also not great news for renters this year… but we already saw that coming.

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